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In the event of a "no agreement" Brexit, the UK economy could be reduced by 8.7% in just 10 years if Great Britain remained a member of the EU. If the UK leaves the EU under May's exit agreement, GDP could rise to 5.5%, according to a study by the London School of Economics' Center for Economic Performance, King & College of London and the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The report has highlighted the potential damage to the economy according to the two scenarios by 2030, compared to the United Kingdom's accession to the European Union. Britain has clearly favored the fact that the EU leaves the EU by signing an agreement. The authors cautioned against the financial disruption related to cutting unauthorized links.
University researchers have not taken into account the expected impact of a possible short-term trade disruption as a result of a possible gap at the edge of a cliff.
The cost to public finances would reach 1.8% of GDP under the current Prime Minister's agreement or 3.1% in the "no agreement" scenario, the report says.
One of the authors of the report said that the UK economy could be "much smaller" than if Britain had remained in the EU, which would have resulted in higher taxes or a reduction in average public spending. and long term.
The report estimated the reduction in GDP after 10 years, compared to the remaining scenario, between 1.9% and 5.5% under the agreement of Ms. May and between 3.5% and 8.7% in the case of a "non-agreement".
Mrs May must present her agreement for a vote of the Parliament on December 11th.
But an agreement on Brexit could still be at stake, with more than 90 conservatives who would have gone against the Prime Minister by voting against his withdrawal agreement.
Yesterday, Ms. May, defiant, officially announced the conclusion of the agreement with the EU while she was addressing MPs at a special session in the House of Commons .
Professor King Doors College, Jonathan Portes, co-author of the report, said: "The Brexit deal will leave us in a customs union with the EU for an indefinite future – but it is far from 39, a frictionless business.
"The additional trade barriers, combined with reductions in skilled and unskilled migration after the end of free movement, would leave the UK economy considerably smaller than it would have been in the medium and long term. .
"This would result in higher taxes or lower public spending".
Professor co-author Anand Menon, UK director in a changing Europe, said: "Clearly, this type of economic modeling needs to be treated with the caution that is required.
"However, our estimates provide a clear indication of the magnitude of the impact of the agreement negotiated by the Prime Minister."
Phantom Chancellor John McDonnell said, "This badysis confirms what everyone knows: this deal will be bad for growth, revenue and public finances.
"If the Prime Minister refuses or is unable to reach a Brexit agreement that works for the whole country, it should stay out of the way, call a general election and let the Labor Party sign an agreement that protects jobs and jobs. offers benefits to the whole country. "
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