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Anyone who doubted the degree of chaos in current British politics should consider this: Many MPs who vote on Wednesday to save May's government are the same as those who on Tuesday night defeated its Brexit agreement that triggered the vote. of confidence in question.
Conservative members of Brexiteer and DUP, the party in North Ireland on which May is calling for a majority in the Commons, have made it clear that they will support the government in a vote on Wednesday around 19:00 GMT.
That does not mean, however, that they think she is the right person to carry out Brexit. Instead, they will take advantage of his extremely weakened authority to campaign for a harder Brexit – or even, as some Conservative MPs hope, a departure "without agreement". In the same way, conservatives who support the continuation of power will push for a more flexible Brexit agreement – an agreement that can win the support of MPs from all parties.
Although May is certain to win the vote of confidence, the fact that it is happening is historic and is seriously prejudicial to the incumbent Prime Minister. On Tuesday night, she made it clear that she was not about to resign voluntarily, although this could normally be expected after a defeat of such magnitude.
His strategy, after winning the vote of confidence expected Wednesday night, is to return to the Commons next Monday with an alternative plan for Brexit, able to test the atmosphere of Parliament. She said that if she wins the vote, she will listen to the concerns of her members.
The problem is that the EU must approve any change in the withdrawal agreement, which was developed after two years of difficult negotiations and which was finally concluded in November. This is not something that can be changed in less than a week. The atmosphere in Brussels is as strong as the refusal to withdraw.
According to information provided by the European Commission, European leaders will fiercely oppose the reopening of the withdrawal agreement to allow changes and block any attempt to set a time limit, a key demand of the Brexiteer , on the controversial litigation of Northern Ireland – the border insurance policy in Ireland. May's allies also believe that the withdrawal agreement can not be renegotiated with the EU.
Many British MPs and voters feel that the solution is to stay in the EU or at least organize a second referendum to save the country, as they see it, from a bad Brexit . This is also the opinion of the Scottish National Party, which governs Scotland, and smaller opposition parties. The official labor policy is to call for new general elections, before calling a second referendum, but a hundred of its members explicitly provide for a second referendum on Wednesday.
The SNP calls for an extension of Article 50, the process that sets the EU's exit calendar on March 29, to give more time to negotiations. Although the SNP's official policy favors another referendum, postponing the date of departure increases the chances of not having a Brexit.
Nicola Sturgeon, prime minister of Scotland, urged May to postpone the Brexit in order to give more time to a consensus, tweeting: "I spoke to PM earlier – he's not going to be there. It is not clear that she has any idea what she should do next.is open to any fundamental change of thought in the talks between her parties. must now do is to ask for the extension of article 50 to stop the stopwatch. "
May insisted that she still wants the UK to leave the UK as scheduled on March 29, though she hinted that the deadline could be extended. But with little sign of an end to the stalemate, no one is more clear about what an extension can achieve. And that means that, as things stand, Britain will leave the EU without any agreement.
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