Where will NASA go in 20 years? It may depend on the private space and China

Birthdays are a moment of reflection. When Ars Technica recently turned 20 years old, I stopped to examine the situation of manned spaceflight in the United States in 1998.

In 1998, NASA launched the Lunar Prospector mission, which found water on the moon. It was also the year when 15 countries came together to agree on a framework for the International Space Station and then launched the first element of the laboratory into orbit. And also that year, NASA's new X-38 spacecraft successfully completed its first test flight. All these events would contribute, in different ways, to determining the course of space flight development in the United States that led us today.

Looking back, one thing quickly became clear: the past is the prologue, and the rhythm of the story is repeated. The achievements of manned space flights from 20 years ago seemed to foreshadow the current state of play in space. Seeing how planted seeds flourished and withered probably offers a useful perspective of what might happen in the future.

Major and disruptive trends in manned spaceflight have emerged in recent years, many of which were largely unplanned in 1998. Today, we face challenges such as new space companies and their backers, as well as the rise of international players, especially China, seek to match or potentially overshadow the feats of NASA.

So, considering where the United States is coming from and where is the current situation, where are we going, and the rest of the world, in 20 years? Here is an overview of space flight 20 years ago, today and in 20 years.

Image of announcement by NASA