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Climate change is already well underway, it is time to act and limit its human causes, as many studies have shown. This last report indicates what may be necessary to achieve this.
According to him, if the world is phasing out its "carbon-intensive infrastructure" at the end of its life cycle, as of the end of 2018, there would be a 64% chance that the peak temperature of the planet remains below the target of 1.5 ° C (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. On top of that, scientists predict that the planet will see even more extreme weather events such as forest fires, droughts, floods, mbadive animal deaths and food shortages for millions of people. The planet is already two-thirds of the way, with global temperatures warming to about 1 degree Celsius.
To maintain the overall median temperature in this optimum limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to this study, a change should occur in all sectors, not just the energy sector. Power plants will have to be replaced, as well as cars, planes, ships and industrial plants running on gas and diesel. Even cows should go – essentially anything that contributes to global warming.
In this scenario, infrastructure such as power plants should not be destroyed and replaced with non-carbon technology – at least not immediately. The researchers are talking about a "design lifespan". In the case of power plants, the average service life based on historical data is about 40 years. According to Consumer Reports, the average life of a car on the road exceeds 11 years, but could last about 200,000 km, or 15 years, according to US estimates. Once they stop working or die, they are replaced by technologies or products that do not contribute to climate change.
"At first, it seemed surprising to see that it was still possible to get a temperature below 1.5 degrees Celsius with all the existing infrastructures, which goes against conventional wisdom," said the co – writer Chris Smith, researcher at the Institute for Climate Science of Atmosphere at the School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds. "But that makes sense in the context of the remaining" carbon budget ", how much we can issue while staying under this limit."
Smith's study does not determine whether this would be feasible from a political or economic point of view, but it does present dozens of scenarios demonstrating the impact of certain actions. could have on the world average temperature. The study shows that time matters. If the world waits until 2030 to start eliminating Its carbon-intensive infrastructure, the probability that the world can reach this goal of 1.5 ° C is less than 50%, even if the rate of removal of fossil fuels was accelerated.
"(The study is) the motivation to continue to aim for a zero carbon world shortly after the middle of this century," Smith said of the research results. "Limiting the rise in temperature reduces the risk of irreversible damage." He adds, "The sooner we act, the less expensive the transition will be and the lower the temperature will be, the less climate damage will cost us."
In October, a report by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stressed that governments around the world must "make swift, profound and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society" to avoid disastrous global warming. He predicted that the planet would reach the crucial threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030.
United Nations research shows that carbon dioxide emissions projected around the world are dismally below the targets set in the Paris Agreement. According to UN research, the current emission targets of all countries would create an average global temperature rise of 3.2 degrees Celsius (5.8 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.
Emissions from the electricity sector, for example, have slowed globally, although they have increased in the United States, following a huge push for the development of power plants. A study conducted in 2014 showed that there were more coal-fired power plants built in the decade prior to the study than in all previous years. In August, the Trump administration announced the easing of restrictions on coal-fired power plants. According to the US Environmental Protection Agency's own estimate, the additional pollution will cause up to 1,400 additional premature deaths a year from 2030.
"The scenarios we study in this study are at the extreme extreme optimism of what could be done without negative emissions or without killing power plants or cars before the time," Smith said. "Although the proposed solution is technically possible, it still does not seem very likely, but I would say that its mapping is a good starting point and it fits the definition of a commitment to It would be interesting to see if, or how, some of these results change with perhaps more real world badumptions. "
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