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Sudan has missed the Arab Spring, but that could change. Demonstrations against Omar al-Bashir, the indicted war criminal who has dominated the country for 29 years, are becoming a daily occurrence. Street-level unrest, triggered by rising prices for bread and fuel, began last month and has spread rapidly. But the attention of protesters, their ranks swollen by teachers, lawyers and doctors, turned to Bashir himself. They want him to leave.
Bashir's response was repressive, as one could expect. And the president can succeed in silencing his critics, as in the past. But the causes of the troubles can not be eluded: ailing economy, low investment, high unemployment, corruption, bad governance and potentially catastrophic lack of opportunities for new generations of young people.
In this respect, Sudan has much in common with other Arab countries. Demonstrations have taken place in recent weeks in Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya and Morocco. Once again, the political temperature is rising. Once again, the inability of governments to meet the aspirations of citizens becomes critical. The question now is whether a new age of revolt – call it Arab Spring # 2 – is getting ready.
Tunisia, the country of the first Arab Spring in 2010, is another example. She too was shaken by riots last month. And the agitation was once again triggered by a desperate individual who immolated himself to protest against the low standard of living and political stasis. The presidential and legislative elections to be held later this year could be another highlight.
It is at least premature to talk about democratic renewal in Syria and Yemen. Attempts by citizens of these countries to dislodge existing regimes have resulted in devastating civil wars. Libya, too, never regained its balance after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. In Egypt, the largest country in the Arab world by its population, the dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak has been replaced by an even worse dictatorship: that of the general became president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi.
However, despite these tragedies, or perhaps because of them, the pressures for change in the Arab world will likely continue to grow, along with population growth, inequality and social injustice. Part of this energy will inevitably be misguided towards supporting extremist groups that promise radical solutions, such as the Islamic State. Part of it will lead to increased migration, especially in southern Europe.
But most of the pressure will be on poorly equipped governments to respond to it, even if they want it. Last Friday, Egypt celebrated the eighth anniversary of the revolution in Tahrir Square that toppled Mubarak. Thanks to Sisi's shadow, he did so largely in silence. Public spaces are forbidden to the demonstrators. Public media are tightly regulated.
Human Rights Watch said that tens of thousands of activists, writers and intellectuals, secular leftists and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood had been placed under receivership under the regulations in force since then. 2013, including anti-terrorism laws. Only this month, Ahmed Douma, who helped organize the Tahrir protests, was sentenced to 15 years in prison for allegedly attacking security forces in 2011.
Last fall, UN human rights experts accused the Sisi regime of relying on anti-terrorism laws to detain women's rights activists and against torture and extrajudicial executions. Yet, Sisi has failed to put an end to the terrorist violence in Sinai and against Coptic Christians. Meanwhile, the austerity measures mandated by the IMF increase poverty. In the face of these tensions, something must be given.
Western governments also repeat the mistakes made before the first Arab Spring: they supported dictatorships that were supposed to serve their interests while ignoring bad behavior. French President Emmanuel Macron will be in Cairo this week hoping to bad fighter planes. Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State, went this month and bypbaded the black hole of human rights in Egypt. And Donald Trump became chief apologist for a Saudi badbadination plot in Istanbul, Riyadh's war crimes in Yemen, and abuses such as the persecution of women's rights activists.
"The problems that jostled in the cauldron of discontent of the early 2000s, provoking the Arab uprisings – considerable rise of youth, high unemployment rate, low wages, education systems mired in the past, lack of innovation and of freedoms – continue to rage and worsen, "said badyst Indira Lakshmanan. "Strong men have not put in place a system to solve the underlying problems."
This will not continue indefinitely. In Egypt, as in Sudan and elsewhere, the pressure is rising. A second explosion can not be far away.
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