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British Prime Minister Theresa May has promised to return to Brussels and reopen negotiations on the withdrawal agreement with the EU after MPs voted on Tuesday to replace the safety net – a trickle to prevent a difficult Irish border – by "another mechanism".
MEPs also approved a non-binding amendment prohibiting leaving the EU without agreement.
On January 15, the parliament overwhelmingly rejected the May withdrawal agreement by 432 votes against 202.
After this resounding defeat, the result of this week was hailed by some commentators as a success for May, who supported the amendment tabled by Conservative MP Graham Brady, seen as an attempt to convince conservative politicians to vote in favor. favor of his agreement.
The month of May is to send any request to Brussels on an unspecified date, in the hope that Parliament's support for the support amendment will serve to persuade EU negotiators to reach an agreement and avoid a non-agreement scenario.
However, this amendment does not guarantee that MPs will vote in favor of any revised agreement on February 14, one day after May, which must report to Parliament.
European reaction
EU officials have repeatedly ruled out reopening negotiations with the UK.
A few minutes after the vote, a spokesman for European Council President Donald Tusk said: "The withdrawal agreement is and remains the best and only way to ensure an orderly withdrawal from the United Kingdom. United Kingdom of the European Union.The support figure in the withdrawal agreement, and the agreement of retraction is not open to renegotiation. "
Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, said Tuesday's vote had "further heightened the risk of a messy exit", as the countdown continues to turn towards March 29, the scheduled date of the departure from the UK from the EU.
As long as the EU will not be aware of these changes, I will not see them move from position. What is clear is that no one has presented acceptable EU proposals that would replace the security system.
David Phinnemore, Professor of European Politics at Queen's University, Belfast
The support, a compromise to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland, is considered one of the main obstacles to reaching an agreement with the United States. EU that the British Parliament can approve.
Eurosceptic conservative MEPs argue that, without a time limit, the backstop would dilute Brexit by forever involving the UK in a customs union with the EU.
"The Conservative party is clearly opposed to some elements of the withdrawal agreement," David Phinnemore, professor of European politics at Queen's University in Belfast, told Al Jazeera.
"One wonders if this will translate into greater bargaining power.Until the EU see what these changes are, I can not see them changing positions. it is that no one has made proposals are acceptable for the EU that would replace the safety net, "he added.
"There are opinion polls that suggest that the majority [of people] Northern Ireland is comfortable with the conditions of withdrawal, "said Phinnemore.
"Many people realize that if the backstop were set up, goods movements between Britain and Northern Ireland would be strengthened, but Brexit will change customs." I think more people would say that's the cost they're willing to bear, rather than seeing a hard border on the island of Ireland. "
A tough border in Ireland would have both economic and political implications, stifling local agriculture, which relies heavily on cross-border trade.
In the UK, various sectors of the business community have called on the government to rule out a non-agreement, which would mean that existing trade agreements between the UK and the EU would end overnight. EU countries also announced the start of preparations for such a scenario.
"Italian exports to the United Kingdom account for about 5% of the country's total exports," Antonio Villafranca, co-head of the Europe and Global Governance Program at the Institute of Advanced Political Studies (ISPI) told Al Jazeera. ) in Italy.
"I do not agree with those who say that it will have no effect.We have a trade surplus with the UK of 12 billion euros ($ 13.7 billion) , including some key export sectors, "he continued.
Figures published by the Italian Statistics Agency (ISTAT), published this week, show that the Italian economy has entered recession as it has contracted by 0.2% over the past three years in 2018. The entire euro area is facing sluggish growth, with Germany – its largest economy – expected to grow at the slowest pace for six years in 2019, according to the Ministry of Finance. Economy of the country.
The problem is not what the European Union would lose due to a non-agreement. That is, if avoiding a non-agreement will be more damaging, it will not do it.
Benjamin Martill, researcher on relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union at the LSE
According to estimates of the Dutch Court of Auditors, the cost of a Brexit without agreement for the Netherlands would be 2.3 billion euros by 2023.
"Certainly, there would be consequences for Italy, especially for Ireland, for the Netherlands and for Germany.
"But the repercussions would be much worse for the United Kingdom, with 50% of its trade being with the EU In addition to this 16% of trade with non-EU countries, tariffs are null thanks to the agreements concluded by the EU, "added Villafranca. "And up to now, the EU has demonstrated absolute unity in this regard".
For Benjamin Martill, a Dahrendorf Forum postdoctoral fellow at the London School of Economics, in charge of research on relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union, what the EU has to lose from d & # 39; a bad deal outweighs the losses of a scenario without agreement.
If the EU wants to prevent an agreement from failing, it could cause damage by throwing Ireland "under the bus at the last minute," he said.
Such a move would give the Brexiteers reason by saying that the EU could not get on its nerves, he added, "and … would open up again the problem of giving Great Britain a good deal in appearance and to invite all the other Member States to come and say, we would like an agreement like this ".
"This moral hazard still exists, so the problem is not what the EU would lose if a non-agreement was in force. agreement would be more damaging, it would not do it. "
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