Why the closure did not resonate in the January Jobs Report

Some of the best forecasters in the country had predicted employment gains of around 170,000, a much lower figure. So how did this very good job report go?

Here is a brief overview of how the closure had and did not affect the January unemployment report.

1. The closure had no impact on the 304,000 jobs. This figure comes from a survey in which the Ministry of Labor asked employers (private sector and government) how many people were on the payroll for the pay period that includes January 12th. The fired federal workers were still on the payroll even though they were not paid. The Labor Department always counted them as employees since the workers would be paid over time.

The entire process is called "survey institutions" and the Ministry of Labor used this methodology for previous stops, which also showed no impact on monthly job gains. (The economist Martha Gimbel of Indeed.com has written an excellent explainer on what has happened at previous closures, including in 2013.)

2. The closure had an impact on the unemployment rate, which reached 4%. The unemployment rate rose in January (from 3.9% in December), largely because of the closure. The Department of Labor calculates the unemployment rate using a different survey (the household survey), which literally hits the doors of some people's homes and asks how many adults are employed and how many are unemployed .

Workers on leave were supposed to be clbadified as unemployed temporarily laid off, but the Department of Labor had to use the language of the person who answered the door. Thus, some dismissed workers clbadified themselves as "employees", while others said (correctly) that they were "temporarily unemployed".

The Department of Labor has stated that some fired federal workers have almost certainly made a misclbadification. The result is that the unemployment rate should probably have been even higher – perhaps 4.1%.

"If federal workers reported as employed but absent from work had been clbadified as unemployed in temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been slightly higher than indicated," Labor Department writes in a note at the bottom of jobs January report.

3. The closure has probably caused an increase in the number of Americans working part-time. Interestingly, the number of Americans taking part-time jobs in January has increased considerably. This means that they were working part time but wanted to work full time. The Department of Labor reported that an additional 490,000 people were working part-time in January, but wanted to work full-time. He said this "may reflect the impact of the partial closure of the federal government".

This measure is closely monitored as a sign of the health of the labor market, as people who wish to work full time should be able to find a job in such a "hot" market. It is calculated from the household survey (where the Department of Labor goes door-to-door).

"A huge number of jobs distorted by workers forced to accept a part-time job to make ends meet when the government shut down." Half a million more people were forced to work part-time instead of working full time in January, "tweeted Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.

The conclusion: the closure had a real impact on 800,000 federal employees and led to an increase in the unemployment rate, but the economy has nevertheless added 304,000 jobs as the private sector continues to hire at a steady pace (8 000 jobs were created in the public sector, but most came from private employers).

This article was written by Heather Long, a Washington Post reporter.