Why does Ralph Northam think he can wait for the blackface scandal?



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The answer to these questions is simple: because it can.

It is very difficult to get rid of a governor who has not committed a crime. And as terrible as this photo is, Northam now claims that he is not pictured, even though he said Friday night that he was not there. This is not the proof of any crime whatsoever. Already, the president of the Virginia State House – a Republican – has made it clear that it is very unlikely to indict Northam.

Northam knows it. And he also knows that past political history shows that if you can survive the 96 hours following a scandal, you can often survive it. There are many reasons for this – one is the very high bar for impeachment, another the extremely short time of attention of the political media and the average consumer of information – but there is has several recent examples that might well stimulate Northam's optimism.

The most egregious is obviously President Donald Trump himself. During the 2016 campaign, Trump said and did a number of things that would have ended a normal campaign. More than a dozen women have accused him of inappropriate behavior. He paid for two women who claimed to have had bad with him in the mid-2000s. In particular, he was filmed making a series of obscene and misogynistic remarks about an "Access Hollywood" bus. Trump denied the allegations of badually inappropriate behavior. He apologized for the tape "Access Hollywood" and later described it as "cloakroom conversation". And he not only stayed in the race, but he won.

Although not a politician, Judge Brett Kavanaugh, Trump's choice for a vacancy at the Supreme Court last year, followed a similar plan after a woman named Christine Blasey Ford alleged that he had badually badaulted her while they were both in high school. Kavanaugh denied everything and insisted that he was the target of a liberal plot. (There was no evidence that Blasey Ford was motivated by partisanship.) While the vote was near, Kavanaugh was confirmed at the Supreme Court.

And there is the case of Rep. Steve King, a Republican from Iowa, who has resisted calls for him to retreat after comments in the New York Times that seemed to support white nationalism. While King was removed from office by his Republican colleagues, he simply refused to go – and the political world was changing. King, of course, may have to deal with voters next year, when he faces a serious primary struggle.

You can look at these three examples – as well as various politicians, mostly Democrats, who resigned very quickly after a scandal and who, in retrospect, may have been hooked – and think: I can do it.

The key word in this last sentence is "think". Yes, Northam may think he can survive this, but there are several extenuating circumstances that suggest this is not the case. Consider:

1. Northam first said that it was about him – although he did not mean to say he was in blackface or in Klan's dress – before retracting less than 24 hours later to insist that it do not him. Huh?

2. The photo was taken from the Northam Medical School Yearbook, which meant that he was about 20 years old at the time of his taking. In addition, it was in 1984. Not in 1954.

3. At his Saturday press conference, Northam admitted that he had darkened his face to look like Michael Jackson in a dance competition in 1984.

4. When asked if he could still walk on the moon, Northam seemed to be preparing to take the step of dancing – at the press conference! – until his wife stops him.

This quartet of factors makes Northam's position impossible to maintain – especially given the Democratic Party's zero-tolerance policy against past transgressions in this era of Trump and the # MeToo movement. Having someone who has said and done what Northam has said and done in the last three days in a position of power is simply unsustainable for Democrats who desperately hope to find the White House back in 2020.
All of this means – I think – that the pressure for Northam to go does not stop. He has already gone from total distrust this weekend to a time that I need more time to think about Monday. We know how this story ends. Northam thinks that he can, in one way or another, write a different end. But he just can not.
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