Brexit: a "very real" chance of a survey on Irish unity if no agreement is found



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Welcome to the sign of Northern Ireland

Several ministers told the BBC that a Brexit without an agreement could lead to a vote on Irish unification.

One of the key ministers said the prospect was "very real" and was of great concern to the prime minister.

A second minister warned the government that the government risked "dozing in a polling station at the border".

And a third minister said the government agreed that a vote on unification would be a "realistic possibility" if the UK left the EU without agreement next month.

"If we participate in creating an environment of chaos, disruption and uncertainty, this could move the dial," the source said.

All three spoke to the BBC on condition of anonymity.

The conditions of a "border survey" are defined in the agreement of Good Friday.

The British Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, the current Karen Bradley, must proceed to a vote if it seems likely that there would be a majority for a united Ireland .

& # 39; Union valuable & # 39;

Sinn Fein called for a vote on Irish unification after Brexit.

The question was raised this week when the prime minister had talks with parties in Northern Ireland in Belfast.

Downing Street believes that the majority of people continue to support the current political settlement – and the Prime Minister is committed to protecting the "precious union".

We have already heard warnings about the impact of Brexit on the UK.

Former Prime Ministers Sir John Major and Tony Blair warned about this before the 2016 EU referendum.

While she was trying to rally support for her initial Brexit deal last month, Theresa May warned that a non-Brexit deal could strengthen the hand of those who wish to unify Irish and Scottish independence.

Some fearing more and more that the UK will leave the EU on March 29 without an agreement, worries about the future of Northern Ireland seem to increase.

"The dangers are real"

"A Brexit without an agreement is the most likely way to lead to a border poll and to a doubt about the benefits of being in the UK," said a cabinet minister at the BBC .

"The dial has not been moved – the dial could be moved under these circumstances."

"The dangers are real," adds a separate minister.

This source believes that there is a danger that people without strong nationalist or trade union background do not react badly to a Brexit without agreement – especially if it causes serious problems at the Irish border – and this could tip the scales.

& # 39; Do your homework & # 39;

Everyone is not in agreement.

Another minister said the government had "a lot of prison exit cards" that could help it avoid a border poll.

When I introduced some of the concerns expressed in Cabinet, Cabinet members accused other people of "remarkably reluctant to do their homework".

But the source added: "If there is really a horror show … polls might reflect it".

It should be emphasized that Brexit would not be the only factor if there was to be a border survey; the evolution of demography would also play an important role.

My colleague Jayne McCormack has written more on the subject here.

But in the corridors of power in Westminster, the concern is real. The unification of Ireland will become a major problem if the UK leaves the EU at the end of March without agreement.

The spokesman for the British government said: "The position has not changed.

"The Secretary of State always feels that a majority of the people of Northern Ireland continue to support Northern Ireland's place in our precious Union.

"The circumstances requiring a polling station at the border – as stated in the 1998 agreement – are not satisfied."

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