Where are Buhari's 12 million voices?

President Buhari has been awarded a 12 million vote bank in the north. After almost four years as president, the sustainability of this vote bank has become a problem.

By Emmanuel Aziken,

SAN Festus Keyamo, spokesman for the campaign organization Muhammadu Buhari was ecstatic last Thursday when the presidential campaign hit the great Jalingo, in the state of Taraba.

"Give yourself to the NTA, can you see what's going on and that's where they call PDP?", The campaign spokesman said. "Can you see the mbadive crowd in the stadium," the lawyer became an activist, and a politician told the police that Buhari's popularity in the North had been eroded.

The president's popularity was based on the badertion that, in two of the three elections held before 2015, he had easily pocketed 12 million votes, almost all from the North.

Votes of Buhari in%

2003 12.7 million 32%

2007 6.6 million 18%

2011 12.2 million 31.9%

2015 15.4 million 53.9%

At its first political exit in 2003, it had 12.7 million votes, or 32% of the total votes cast. In 2007, a very qualified election with little integrity by the winner, Musa Yar'adua, was credited with 6.6 million votes, or 18% of the total votes cast.

In 2011, when he challenged Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, the 12 million votes rebounded. It represented 31.9% of the total votes cast.

It was therefore not surprising that, before the 2015 elections, Buhari's 12 million votes became an attractive badet for political actors in the All Progressive Congress, APC.

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the party's national leader, once regarded President Aminu Waziri Tambuwal as a possible presidential candidate and, according to some sources, would have supported him to win the presidential form of the new party.

However, there were those who believed more in Buhari. One of them, Senator Bukola Saraki, had himself shown interest in the presidency in 2011, but had not obtained the approval of the president. Northern Institution, which was looking for a common candidate from the North.

Prior to 2015 and apparently unhappy with the situation in the country, Saraki had partnered with others to form the coalition that became the APC. Even so, he had projected his political aspirations to a more realistic level.

According to a source close to him, Saraki was one of the protagonists of Buhari's appearance as a candidate for the presidency of the APC and thus relegated his aspirations to Buhari.

Atiku and Buhari closed their hometowns with campaigns

"For Saraki at that time, it was almost a theatrical object, because he would tell anyone that at that time, see Buhari has 12 million votes in his pocket and he would demonstrate it by hitting his pocket", said a source close to him. .

Whether it's about this projection or not, the majority of the CPA stakeholders at the time were apparently in agreement that Buhari had fully convinced Tinubu of his choice.

Once Tinubu was inside, it seemed impossible to turn back. But there were some among them, including a governor in office, who told Tinubu that he would live to regret this decision.

However, there is no regret, at least from Buhari, because the fusion of forces across the country in 2015 projected it and raised it above 12 million mystical voices for the first time of his four elections.

At the end of the vote, Buhari added an additional three million votes, largely thanks to votes from the Southwest, to bring his vote to 15 million votes.

However, after three years of difficult mandate and a mixed record in its three priorities: security, economy and fight against corruption, the sustainability of the 12 million votes becomes a problem.

Mr. Keyamo dismisses this badertion by saying that in 2019, the North would come back even beyond the 12 million votes obtained by the president.

"We are even considering about 15 million votes even before they start voting. At the time when it had 12 million votes, it had no political structure in the north. From governors to local governments, most of the time, all the member states of the PDP, and yet, one man will come without a scout and sweep all those votes, no one to protect the votes. "These numbers were more than that because he had no one to protect his votes. He had no one in the government to protect his votes, "Buhari campaign spokesman Vanguard said on Saturday.

Kola Ologbondinyan, Advertising Director for the Atiku Abubakar Campaign Organization, said the 12 million votes had been squandered by Buhari's alleged poor performance.

"They were wasted. I say it very clearly because, when he had badumed those 12 million votes, he had not been politically deflowered, so people saw him as a messianic character, especially the oppressed who thought that he was not a man. it happened, their problems would be solved, "said Ologondinyan. in a telephone interview.

"Unfortunately, this man spent three and a half years and they realized that even as a Nigerian individual, he had no structure on the side of the poor, he had no basis for action in favor of society. . poor.

"He has not built a school or even Koranic school for the poor and his government has completely disowned the poor and from which will come the 12 million votes?"

Given the president's mixed performance and rumors across the country, Keyamo was challenged by the president's prospects. Has not he lost his followers, was he asked in the face of hunger and agony caused by insecurity in the north?

"The people of the north know those who caused hunger; they know that he is trying to get them out of poverty. Northerners know clearly, have the message, and know where the problem is coming from, "he said while seeking to move the president away from the issue of poverty and the challenges ahead.

Addressing the problem of hunger in the previous PDP administration, he said:

"The popular saying in the north is now that it's not Buhari who broke your bone, that he's the bone-seeker and that's why you're feeling the pain he's try to fix the bone, and that's why you feel the pain. "

Noting what he described as Buhari's invincibility in the north, he said that even when the PDP commanded many northern states, it did not affect as many as 12 million mystical votes.

"There were PDP governors when Buhari got his 12 million votes, and anyone saying the opposite is now living in a foolish paradise. This election has been lost and won, and they are trying to make stupid projections so that when they lose, they cry now.

"It's an insult to say that the most popular presidential candidate since 2003 in the political landscape is trying to fudge, that's an insult," he said.

In fighting him, Ologbondinyan claims that those who made the president's victory possible in 2015 have abandoned him all. He also refers to the fact that the internal dissensions that characterized the 2015 PDP campaign have been resolved.

"Those who got the 12 million votes, like in Sokoto, for example, Governor Tambuwal, Alhaji Attahiru Bafarawa, Alhaji Mukthar Shagari, have solved their crisis and are working together. So, Sokoto is out.

"In Kano, Kwankwansiya is a one-man community and has contributed to it in the last election. Today, he will not help. In Jigawa, Sule Lamido was angry because the presidential post was supposed to go north, which is not the case. Today, he returns fully to the party.

"So wherever you go, people are ready and ready, and it's the first election that will truly prove its 12 million votes," said Atiku's spokesman.

Without a doubt, the challenges of the government and the appointment and insecurity policies that have recently divided the North must play into the consideration of many voters.

Buhari's victory in 2015 was influenced by good performances in Benue, Kogi, Kwara and Plateau. It is a region that has largely contributed to consolidate the 12 million votes that allowed him to win the victory in 2015.

The region has stood with the strong advocacy of regional leaders such as Saraki, Senators Barnabas Gemade, George Akume, among others.

Four years later, with the notable exception of Akume, almost everyone who contributed to the success deserted the president.

"It does not matter, and every day I look at it, where will it get the votes," a political actor from Atiku camp told Vanguard on Saturday.

Benue, for example, has voted with the winner of every presidential election since 1979 and the state easily won by Buhari in 2015 is disappearing almost completely from the presidential reach.

When the president visited Makurdi earlier this week, a telling sign of the positive badurances given by the PDP was seen in the almost empty banquet hall, where the president met with stakeholders. Although the Tiv Tor was present, Ochi Idoma, the traditional chief of the Idoma nation, was absent in the room, which was about a quarter full.

The leaders at the Benue, as in many minority countries in the North, feel that the president has not had much success, despite the support they gave him in 2015.

The capacity of the president to compensate for the potential losses of such states in the north of the country may also be problematic given the strong mobilization of Atiku in these key states like Kano, Sokoto, Jigawa and Adamawa.

The only time Buhari came into direct conflict with fellow Fulani, was in 2007, and he lost, even though it was thought that the election had largely been rigged.

But facing a strong politician like Atiku who, over the years, has built structures and links across northern Buhari, his work has certainly been well done.

Why Buhari Can not Increase His Number of Voices – Phrank Shuaibu, Atiku Abubakar's Special Assistant for Media

Ask yourself if you met anyone who told you: "I made a big mistake in not voting for Buhari in 2015 and I'm going to rectify that by making sure to vote for him." in 2019 ". We do not think that such a person exists anywhere on this planet (with the possible exception of the Republic of Niger).

So, after four years of mismanagement of Buhari that resulted in record unemployment, record poverty and record insecurity, it is physically impossible for Buhari to legitimately increase his vote. With today's statement from the CPA, they have actually announced to the nation that they are going to win the elections expected by foul means.

According to the survey conducted by Williams and Associates, we find that the percentage of people who say they are very likely to vote has increased by 17.4% (from 63% in 2015 to 74% in 2019), which would increase voter turnout. from 2015 to 43%. 50.5%. When we apply this principle to the 84 million registered voters in 2019, we will reach a total of 40.4 million votes cast on 16 February.

So, if we are generous and accept that Buhari's 12 million votes will not go down, it means he will get 29.7% of the estimated 40.4 million votes for 2019, which will prevent him from winning the elections. .

Even in the very unlikely event that other candidates would get a total of 3 million votes (again, that would be 10 times more than the 300,000 votes for "others" in 2015), it would mean that Atiku would get 40.4 to 12 million votes. = 25.4 million, which would give it a 63% share of votes according to the calculations of the APC.

Now, we are all concerned about the rigging. However, it would be impossible for any party, even in the Soviet era, to rig an election on the scale necessary to cancel that result. "

We also note that the Williams & Associates poll not only predicts an Atiku victory, it also conclusively demonstrates that 42% more Nigerians think that Atiku will be the next president on Buhari.

Even the majority of voters in Buhari's northwestern geopolitical area believe that Atiku will win it, just as voters from all geopolitical regions, all age groups and all religions.

Moreover, this belief is also true among APC supporters, with a margin of 56% to 38%, which shows even among Buhari's followers that they realize that the time is up for their candidate.

In fact, there is not a single group of people in this country, other than the cabal, who believe that Buhari can win.

So, our message to the Nigerian people is to go vote, but stay until the end of the count in your polling station to make sure your vote counts. "

The Minister of Information, Lai Mohammed, is firmly convinced that it is no longer the story of 12 million people before the 2015 elections nor the 15 million votes that allowed Buhari to to win in 2015. He says there will be more voices this time. He said:

"People who vote for the president will not do it on the basis of ethnicity or religion, but because of the way in which the programs and policies of his administration have had a positive impact on them. The parents of the 9.3 million schoolchildren who are fed daily under the local food system of the administration, the 1.2 million tradermoni beneficiaries, the 500,000 unemployed graduates Employed by N-Power, Nigerians who see the results of the administration More than 2.7 trillion nairas have been invested in infrastructure, including roads, railways and power plants, as well as more than 12 million rice farmers who have benefited from the Anchor Borrowers program. These are the people who will vote for the president and their votes have nothing to do with religion or ethnicity "

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