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Senator Bernie Sanders would start a presidential bid for 2020 with 2.1 million online donors, a huge advance among the low-dollar donors that roughly equals the donor base of all other candidates democrats together.
Beto O 'Rourke, the former Texas congressman who had narrowly lost a race in the Senate last year, is also on the verge of becoming a fundraising phenomenon. he is running for president: he has twice as many online donors as those who watch the race except Mr. Sanders.
Three senators who are already present have their own background with small donors. Senator Elizabeth Warren, who ranks third in importance, has significant strength in New Hampshire, even over O'Rourke. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has developed broad national support among small donors, despite her reputation as a great source of funding, while Senator Kamala Harris has collected $ 1.5 million online during her first 24 hours of candidacy. presidential.
Small donations are expected to be a huge market in 2020 – the renewable resource that Democratic candidates will rely on to fuel their campaigns. And these five Democrats represent a distinctive high-level group with the following fearsome, each with a base of at least 230,000 online donors, according to a New York Times badysis covering six years of filings. federal elections by ActBlue, the main process of processing donations of the Democratic Party. Platform.
That's almost the exact amount that Mrs. Warren raised the day she announced her entry into the race, according to the data.
The Times' badysis estimated the size of online donor armies for current and potential candidates by comparing hundreds of millions of dollars in donations processed through ActBlue. The badysis does not include candidates who did not run in federal elections, such as mayors or governors, or those who did not use ActBlue.
To get an idea of the scale, if Sanders's 2.1 million donors were a city, the closest approximation would be Houston, the fourth largest in the country. For Mr. O'Rourke, it would be Seattle (742,000). For Mrs. Warren, Honolulu (343,000). Mrs. Gillibrand would be Toledo, Ohio (271,000). Ms. Harris would be Winston-Salem, N.C. (239,000).
Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, who took part in the race at the beginning of February, would be Grand Forks, N.D. (56,000), a sign that Mr. Booker had not yet converted his tracking social media in financial contributors.
Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., although nationally known, would probably start as far behind as he has not been alone in the past decade. Its Political Action Committee has reported about $ 925,000 in donations of less than $ 200 since mid-2017, but as Mr. Biden does not use ActBlue, there is no estimate of his number of donors. A spokesman for Mr Biden declined to comment.
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Biden has an unusual badet: access to the much vaunted e-mail list of the Obama campaign, which had 9 million people when handed over to the Democratic National Committee in 2015, according to the party. But e-mail lists get very fast, and the seven-year list is considered a relative relic.
The compilation of donor lists can take years and the most important ones are often only developed through a high level race. Email remains the dominant means of raising money online, and campaigns are widely advertising efforts such as signing petitions on Facebook to collect e-mail addresses from new donors. These lists, in turn, generate volunteers and a network of potential supporters who can amplify the messages of the candidates on social media to strengthen their support.
Local contributions are considered so important in 2020 that the National Democratic Committee has included them in the rules for qualifying the presidential debate.
"It's hard to see a person win this nomination that is not at the top of its ability to generate small donations, because it is a pledge of enthusiasm," said Anita Dunn, Democratic strategist and veteran of the White House Obama.
Candidates are under intense pressure to lock donors, big and small, into an already gigantic race. That small donors and big donors give to several candidates or remain "monogamous" remains an open question, since Democrats have not had such a vast field since the rise of online fundraising.
The results represent the best snapshot of the strength of small donors at the start of a campaign where the ability to raise tens of millions of dollars from small donors will be crucial, especially since the main candidates disavow the super PACs. that allow rich funds to pay unlimited amounts. .
Of course, in a race likely to stretch over 18 months, early benefits can dissipate quickly. A strong survey or a viral moment may encourage donors to give new applicants, thereby increasing the number of their lists – as long as they are able to capitalize. The launch day of Ms. Harris, for example, compared with that of Mr. Sanders in 2015.
Ms. Dunn stated that she considered the initial ranking less as a predictor of the upcoming primary outcome and more as a revealing indicator of "who could effectively use their 2017 and 2018 to prepare for a presidential race." ".
Both Ms. Harris and Ms. Gillibrand have joined the Leadership Council despite the fact that they have not faced competitive elections in recent years. The two senators spent a lot of time pooling their small lists of donors, investing in multi-million dollar campaigns on Facebook in 2017 and 2018 to add email addresses to their list of supporters and attract new contributors.
"It's almost like growing vegetables," said Tim Lim, veteran Democratic Digital Strategist. "You must be attentive. You must be aware of major events. You must be patient. But in about six months, your investment will be profitable. "
While it is not surprising that Mr. Sanders is ahead of small digital donors – he is the only potential candidate to have a pre-presidential candidacy included in the badysis – the sheer breadth of his advantage of opening is striking.
During his 2016 presidential campaign, Mr. Sanders had 369 days in which he processed more online donations than Ms. Gillibrand on her best day in the Senate – the day after President Trump. tweeted about her the "beggar" for money – until the end of 2018, according to the data. (Gillibrand's most important days were significantly shorter than those of her rivals with a broad base of support.)
The advantage enjoyed by MM. Sanders and O 'Rourke is not only the size of their lists, but the exclusivity of their donors, the vast majority (about 87% for Mr. Sanders, 72% for Mr. O & # Rourke ) have not contributed to any other potential candidate for 2020. In contrast, less than half of Warren's donors have given her only one of the 2020 potential.
Ms. Gillibrand actually had a few more exclusive donors than Mrs. Warren – although she had 70,000 fewer donors overall.
Critical questions remain about the list of donors for almost all candidates: Will Sanders' donors since his main challenge to Hillary Clinton in 2016 remain in the race for 2020 with progressive alternatives? What part of Mr. O'Rouke's flock was attracted by the opportunity to defeat Senator Ted Cruz, a favorite Liberal villain? And how many reminders of Mrs. Warren supported her against Senator Scott Brown at the time, but perhaps not participating in the race at the White House?
Behind the top five candidates, Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who travels the first states while he considers a race, finishes with 114,000 donors. Then, Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon, the only one to approve Mr. Sanders in 2016, is thinking about an election campaign; Its 105,000 online donors suggest that its fundraising potential is relatively underestimated.
Mr. Booker is among the most-watched social media presidential candidates (he has 4 million followers on Twitter), but the New Jersey Democrat had the seventh largest number of donors among senators examining nominations for 2020. Mr. Booker's campaign website used ActBlue intermittently in 2013, 2014 and 2015, suggesting that the total number of his online donors is probably at least slightly higher.
"This is the perfect case study to show what it takes to create a vast online audience today. It's crazy to think that you can just develop this organically, "said Lim, the digital strategist. "Just because you have a lot of people or people who love you or who speak to you does not mean that this translates into an organized and powerful donor community."
Booker announced that Jenna Lowenstein, a former digital strategist for Clinton's 2016 campaign, would be named badistant campaign director, an initiative intended to improve the footprint of her online donors.
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, who is expected to announce an offer for 2020 on Sunday, is far behind her colleagues, with fewer than 38,000 donors. This figure was roughly tied with Richard Ojeda, who briefly declared his candidacy for the presidency after losing a race in the House in West Virginia before dropping abruptly in late January.
Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, who announced her candidacy for the presidency in January, had 41,000 donors, but more than 75% of her donors rode either Mr. Sanders, whom she had sponsored in 2016, at least two other potential candidates.
Ms. Gabbard's best day for online donations came two and a half years ago. It was the day that Mr. Sanders sent a fundraising email to her.
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