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EEven in the best of times, politics can be a place of deception and a room of mirrors. High politics and low calculation are inseparable in the way MPs vote. For some of us, this is part of what makes politics so fascinating. But on the Brexit, mirrors shine and deceive more than ever.
While Commons are gearing up for another day of voting on Brexit today, with more votes coming later this month and in March, there must always be remembered. Today's votes are skirmishes in a positioning campaign, not battle. So far, none of the votes of the large communes has meant precisely what they may seem to mean.
The most striking example is the illustrious. The deal between Theresa May and the EU was overwhelmingly rejected in the Commons on Jan. 15 by 230 votes. Still, many Conservative MPs voted against knowing full well that this was not the last word. Two weeks later, most of them were lining up behind the so-called Brady amendment, which gives a second chance to the initial May agreement.
In the fog of conflict, it may be tempting to think that the Brexit policy has been settled more than it is. The reality is that most of the big options, and some small ones, are still at stake. Just as the May deal can still survive pretty much intact, supplemented by a version of Northern Ireland's support system, Other options range from Brexit to Norwegian at an unanchored exit – all of which have supporters in Westminster – can not be considered. excluded.
The underlying reasons for this uncertainty are also unchanged. The European question is huge, complex and divisive. Parliament and the government are still struggling to adjust to a referendum vote that they generally do not support and which is not easy to implement. And we have a suspended parliament. The combination is a recipe for instability and uncertainty.
Since the vote of the Brady Amendment on January 29, May baderted that she had a "substantial and lasting" majority for her attempt to create support and get the contract to the House. communes. Of course, she says that. It's in his interest. She wants to weaken the will of her rebels.
But that does not make it true. The majority for Brady was a single image of a moving film. The film has already evolved. May's motion for today's debate had problems with the Conservative rebels yesterday, precisely because it recognizes another truth – that there is also a Westminster majority against non-agreement – that the rebels will not accept. Substantial majority? Pull the other.
This is the same reason why the information on the death of the Cooper-Boles amendment was also premature and exaggerated. This amendment, which proposed an extension of the Article 50 process to prevent a Brexit without compromise, was rejected by 23 votes two weeks ago. One of the reasons for its downfall, however, is that 24 Labor MPs voted against or abstained. Some did so, partly because they did not want to vote to extend the Brexit, but it could be extended anyway, just as British chief negotiator Olly Robbins predicted this week.
Whatever happens in the House of Commons tonight, not only are these alternatives fighting for another day, but they can also win in the end. This week, May called Conservative MPs to keep their cool as she pursued her quest for a salable version of this system. But the same advice holds with the same force for moderates in the House of Commons who want to reach a more moderate Brexit agreement than May's. Their moment could still come.
To say that does not mean to deny. On the contrary, it's recognizing the facts. Looking back over the history of Brexit since becoming prime minister in July 2016, there are three truths about May's approach. The first is that she has to sign the cheapest Brexit deal for the country. The second is that she is determined not to negotiate. Third, she wants the Brexit to be organized by the Conservative Party and its parliamentary allies.
His problem, from the beginning, is that these three ducks will not line up. It is extremely unlikely that this will change. The real problem is this third duck. May remains absolutely centered on Brexit. But there are not enough Conservative MPs and DUPs who will vote for the type of agreement they want. The rejection on January 15, by which 118 Conservative MPs voted against its agreement, undoubtedly exaggerated the internal opposition. But these 118 will not come back at the end of the month or in March. Some will do it. Some will not – perhaps including the DUP package.
In other words, an agreement on Brexit will only be possible with the support of the opposition. But how much may need? Even the chief bad does not know it. Jeremy Corbyn, who supports the Brexit but wants the Conservatives to own it, is confusing many calculations. Yet all Labor MPs who did not support Cooper-Boles are not in favor of the May agreement. Some simply do not want to be responsible for an extension of Article 50. What's more, they may realize their wish, if what Robbins heard say in the hotel bar in Brussels Tuesday night by Angus Walker, ITV News, would come true.
Since January 29, when the Brady amendment was pbaded and the amendment Cooper-Boles lost, many have badumed that the dice were thrown. The remaining Britain is fatalism and after these votes, May will finally deliver a Brexit struggling with the Conservatives. Yes, it could happen. But facts and figures do not confirm this view yet. Facts and figures still count a lot, even in a mirror room. But leadership matters for even more.
• Martin Kettle is an editorialist of The Guardian
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