[ad_1]
The number of registered new voters in Nigeria since January 2018 has increased almost exactly in the same proportions in each of its states, according to documents reviewed and badyzed by the Guardian, raising fears that the results of Saturday's presidential election will be subject to mbadive fraud. .
Voters in Africa's largest country, by its population, will choose between incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, his main rival, Atiku Abubakar, and more than 70 other candidates.
Since the last presidential election of 2015, many more people are now eligible to vote and many others have registered to vote for the first time. About 10 million new voters registered between January 2018 and early 2019 – according to data published by the electoral commission (INEC) – twice as many as those registered in the first nine months of registration, ie April 2017 to January 2018.
However, badysis of the data for each of the country's 36 states and capital shows that INEC has increased the number of registered new voters by almost the same percentage in all states. The correlation is a "statistical impossibility" and does not reflect the demographic changes in Nigeria, according to data badysts working with the Guardian. Additional data reviewed by the Guardian also reveal irregularities in registrations for the 2015 election, until then considered free and fair.
On average, the number of registered voters in each state increased by 2.2 percent between April 2017 and January 2018, and by 7.7 percent for the entire registration period leading up to Saturday's election.
Plotted on a scatter line graph, there is a correlation of 0.99 in all states, with no single outlier. According to three separate data badysts, parity can not be a coincidence. "Only God works so closely," said one badyst. If some of the new registered voters are fakes, this would imply interference in the electoral commission, although it is unclear whether it would be the decision party or opposition that could benefit.
Saturday's election is seen as a referendum on Buhari's first term, which was marred by his prolonged absence due to illness, weak economy, and the government's inability to effectively fight corruption and corruption. insecurity.
A faction of Boko Haram on Tuesday attacked a convoy of the state governor, killing four people and stolen vehicles; the same day, 15 people were crushed at a rally of the ruling party east of Port Harcourt. On Thursday, 14 bags of ballots were intercepted in the state of Kano, although the police claimed that it was only "specimens" of documents meant to inform the voters.
It was also reported that the privacy of citizens would have been compromised after INEC and the Nigeria Communications Commission allowed the ruling party access to personal data.
The 2015 election in which Buhari came to power was widely considered to be free and fair. However, an badysis of separate figures shows that manipulations could have taken place in favor of the Buhari party, which opposed Goodluck Jonathan's Popular Democratic Party.
An index may have been forgotten last July when the INEC, perhaps inadvertently, publicly referred to a different set of results than the one on which Buhari's victory was based.
Both documents showed that 29.4 million votes were registered. But according to the initial results, 31.7 million registered voters participated in the election, while in the second set of results, this figure dropped to 23.6 million.
The gap suggests an additional 6 million voters, well above the PCA's margin of return – in line with the initial result set – of 2.6 million votes.
Smart card readers were used for the first time in 2015 and the second set of results was released in response to widespread criticism after the malfunction of the new technology, forcing millions of voters, including Jonathan, to use the manual process. The second set of results appears to have disappeared from the INEC website two months ago, as have all the others regarding the 2015 survey.
Elections in Nigeria are often rigged and are generally not limited to the party in power at the time. Powerful politicians move smoothly between the two main parties, providing support and editing mechanisms with them.
The Buhari party leader may have revealed the truth of a language shift at a press conference in September.
"For democracy to flourish, only those who can accept the pain of rigging – sorry, defeat – should participate in an election, "said Oshiomhole.
Source link