Nigerian voter data are "statistically impossible", according to an analysis | News from the world



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The number of registered new voters in Nigeria since January 2018 has increased almost exactly in the same proportions in each of its states, according to documents reviewed and badyzed by the Guardian, raising fears that the results of Saturday's presidential election will be subject to mbadive fraud. .

Voters in Africa's largest country, by its population, will choose between incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, his main rival, Atiku Abubakar, and more than 70 other candidates.

Since the last presidential election of 2015, many more people are now eligible to vote and many others have registered to vote for the first time. About 10 million new voters registered between January 2018 and early 2019 – according to data published by the electoral commission (INEC) – twice as many as those registered in the first nine months of registration, ie April 2017 to January 2018.

However, badysis of the data for each of the country's 36 states and capital shows that INEC has increased the number of registered new voters by almost the same percentage in all states. The correlation is a "statistical impossibility" and does not reflect the demographic changes in Nigeria, according to data badysts working with the Guardian. Additional data reviewed by the Guardian also reveal irregularities in registrations for the 2015 election, until then considered free and fair.

On average, the number of registered voters in each state increased by 2.2 percent between April 2017 and January 2018, and by 7.7 percent for the entire registration period leading up to Saturday's election.

Plotted on a scatter line graph, there is a correlation of 0.99 in all states, with no single outlier. According to three separate data badysts, parity can not be a coincidence. "Only God works so closely," said one badyst. If some of the new registered voters are fakes, this would imply interference in the electoral commission, although it is unclear whether it would be the decision party or opposition that could benefit.

On Sunday, February 16, 84 million voters will choose the leader of the largest democracy in Africa. Despite more than 60 candidates, it is probably a choice between President Muhammadu Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

President Muhammadu Buhari (APC candidate)

Buhari's victory in 2015 with his All Progressive Congress (APC) party was based on three promises: ridding Nigeria of endemic corruption, repairing the economy and tackling security threats.

The government says it is progressing in the fight against Boko Haram, but it is now in its tenth year and the economy has come in and out of the recession under Buhari. According to his opponents, his government fails to fight corruption, while Amnesty International says the army is responsible for human rights violations.

After spending five months in Britain in 2017 to receive treatment for an undisclosed illness, opposition groups said he was not fit to hold a position, but Mr. Buhari, 76, says he's strong enough to serve.

Atiku Abubakar (PDP candidate)

Atiku, 72, a leading candidate of the opposition People's Democratic Party (PDP), has been accused of corruption since he was vice-president from 1999 to 2007. He has repeatedly denied any reprehensible act.

He has promised pro-business policies to double the economy and reach $ 900 billion by 2025. He wants to privatize part of the state oil company and create a $ 25 billion fund. dollars to support private sector investment.

Atiku's opponents claimed that he would exploit these pro-business policies to enrich and enrich his entourage.

A divided country

Nigeria is deeply divided between the predominantly Muslim north and the predominantly Christian south. There are more than 200 distinct ethnic groups. This led to an unofficial power-sharing agreement, with the presidency alternating north and south every eight years.

It's not just religion or ethnicity that causes fractures. Half of registered voters in Nigeria are between 18 and 35 years old. Many say their aging leaders are out of touch and have supported a "Not Too Young To Run" campaign to encourage young people looking for a job.

Electoral concerns

The year 2015 was the only time Nigeria had a peaceful transfer of power since the civilian government took power in 1999. Even then, there was evidence of vote buying, intimidation of voters and other forms of corruption. International observers are afraid of electoral interference and rigging this time around.

Last month, Buhari triggered a constitutional quarrel by suspending the Chief Justice, who plays a crucial role in resolving disputes over election results.

Way of victory

The candidate with the highest number of votes is declared the winner, provided that he / she has at least a quarter of the votes in two-thirds of the 36 states of Nigeria and the capital. Otherwise, there is runoff.

Martin Belam and agencies


Photography: John MacDougall / AFP

Saturday's election is seen as a referendum on Buhari's first term, which was marred by his prolonged absence due to illness, weak economy, and the government's inability to effectively fight corruption and corruption. insecurity.

A faction of Boko Haram on Tuesday attacked a convoy of the state governor, killing four people and stolen vehicles; the same day, 15 people were crushed at a rally of the ruling party east of Port Harcourt. On Thursday, 14 bags of ballots were intercepted in the state of Kano, although the police claimed that it was only "specimens" of documents meant to inform the voters.

It was also reported that the privacy of citizens would have been compromised after INEC and the Nigeria Communications Commission allowed the ruling party access to personal data.

The 2015 election in which Buhari came to power was widely considered to be free and fair. However, an badysis of separate figures shows that manipulations could have taken place in favor of the Buhari party, which opposed Goodluck Jonathan's Popular Democratic Party.

An index may have been forgotten last July when the INEC, perhaps inadvertently, publicly referred to a different set of results than the one on which Buhari's victory was based.

Both documents showed that 29.4 million votes were registered. But according to the initial results, 31.7 million registered voters participated in the election, while in the second set of results, this figure dropped to 23.6 million.





A supporter of Atiku Abubakar at an election rally in Yola, Nigeria



A supporter of Atiku Abubakar at an election rally in Yola, Nigeria. A photograph: Sunday Alamba / AP

The gap suggests an additional 6 million voters, well above the PCA's margin of return – in line with the initial result set – of 2.6 million votes.

Smart card readers were used for the first time in 2015 and the second set of results was released in response to widespread criticism after the malfunction of the new technology, forcing millions of voters, including Jonathan, to use the manual process. The second set of results appears to have disappeared from the INEC website two months ago, as have all the others regarding the 2015 survey.

Elections in Nigeria are often rigged and are generally not limited to the party in power at the time. Powerful politicians move smoothly between the two main parties, providing support and editing mechanisms with them.

The Buhari party leader may have revealed the truth of a language shift at a press conference in September.

"For democracy to flourish, only those who can accept the pain of rigging sorry, defeat – should participate in an election, "said Oshiomhole.

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