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This ominous and agitated Oscars season, which should be much more a celebration than fear and panic in the streets it seemed to cause. I do not know much, but I know that the intense pressure on filmmakers to be "pure" from the beginning or otherwise can not win a prize is something I would really like to see abandoned in the years to come up. No one should have vetting Green Book's filmmakers just to hurt the film's chances. This topic should never have been addressed because we are talking about whether the films himself are worthy of attribution.
Now that the academy has returned Roman Polanski for something that happened more than 40 years ago, it seems to have sent the message that artists' lives are up for grabs. Without distracting attention in a conversation about Polanski (oh my god, please, no), I will simply say that we are not supposed to be rewarding people for leading good lives. In fact, the best art often comes from people who have not done it. We do not live in a utopia where everything we talk about and celebrate is the good things we have done. We are all imperfect. And we are probably not good since birth. We are all bad and over time we learn to do things that do not harm others. If you prevent people from learning, from blossoming and changing, you will only be able to rely on an art that is worthless and the idea of humanity will be essentially worthless. A "Brave New World" indeed.
No one yet knows (although many experts will try to convince you that they know) how the best film race will land and what will fundamentally change the Hollywood trade when that happens. There is a lot at stake for this change. Indeed, if a film of superhero Marvel won the best movie? Does this not put the golden seal of approval for the types of movies that now dominate the movie theaters? As good as Black Panther is (and he is very Well), it's still a franchise blockbuster – the exact kind of thing the Academy has unequivocally rejected in the past. By not choosing Black Panther, what would they like to keep in the movie? Are we going to a place where American films can not win because American films are strangled by capitalism? Is this the reason we are moving towards a year when foreign language films have two places in the best director's race and only two US-born directors have won in the category since 2009?
Can American films and filmmakers retain the idea of film as art? And if so, does Netflix offer them a safe pbadage to do it? In rewarding Netflix, does this mean that art is finally free of trade and that American filmmakers can again take bigger risks? Netflix exists separately from mental hysteria because it is very difficult to boycott a version of Netflix. For example, Twitter can not face off and destroy the opening weekend numbers, nor can it launch 200 rotten critics on Rotten Tomatoes. The best case for a Netflix victory is that it may be a "refuge" for art.
The preferential vote is a delicate thing. Which film arrives at number one? It seems that it will probably be Roma, who should also have no problem to collect the second and third votes (you will have to trust me, despite what the experts have said on the Web). This makes it the safest bet, even if you predict something that has never happened in 90 years of Oscar history.
Roma has to make history by being 1) the first foreign language film to win the best foreign language film and best film awards, 2) being the first Netflix movie to win the victory (c & # 39; is the first nominated film, so big deal), and 3) to be the first film to win with only a DGA win and no SAG nomination together in the era of enlarged voting. Do not forget that The Shape of Water has also won the PGA in addition to the DGA. Roma does not have a wide guild support. He did not win the Eddie. He did not win the PGA. He only won the DGA. This could be enough. Heck, Moonlight won with only the WGA, but he had a strong acting performance behind him, ensuring that people watch the movie – and once they watched it, they were conquered.
The jury still does not know if people are going or not watch Roma. To follow: it was presented in Venice and Telluride, which is the sure way to win the best film at the time of the enlarged ballot. Roma could win four: film, film in foreign language, director, best film. Maybe he can win the support actress. This is possible.
Green Book must overcome the controversies that have erupted around him, but have you seen his box office recently? It is gaining money by word of mouth. It's good for Green Book. It's a nice movie for many. There is no name for best director AND no SAG set name. Green Book can win three: the actor in a supporting role, the original screenplay, the best film. Maybe it can also win editing. This is possible.
If BlacKkKlansman wins only the WGA, he is more likely to participate in the race than any other film in terms of key nominations. In fact, it is the champion of statistics for the moment, which gives the impression that the chances of winning three are very good: editing, adapted scenario, best film. When he wins the role of director, Spike Lee becomes the first African-American to win the category in the 91-year-old category.
Black Panther has a SAG set, but he did not win the PGA. Can he surprise in Best Picture? Of course as possible. Black Panther has no negative approach to the race, and all the positives (except the genre factor and the lack of nominations for writing, staging and actors). That would surely be part of the story and it's a long call, but honestly, it's the same for everyone.
Anything that wins the best movie will be really shocking.
Let us make our predictions as they are, and with a grain of salt.
Best image
Roma or Green Book or BlacKkKlansman or Black Panther
When I write my predictions, I will probably go with Green Book only because he won the PGA. However, I plan to conduct a few polls to see if I can read better on the vote by consensus.
A star is born
Vice
The favourite
Bohemian Rhapsody
Best actor
1. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Christian Bale, Vice President
3. Bradley Cooper, a star is born
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Paper
5. Willem Dafoe, at the gate of eternity
Best actress
1. Glenn Close, the wife
Although Olivia Colman won the BAFTA, I think it will finally be the year of Glenn Close. The reason is that Glenn Close's unrivaled career in his debut, but also his work in The Wife is a real track, while Colman's is really a support piece. Emma Stone is the manager of The Favorite, and I think voters will know when they choose a winner. I could be wrong, but that's how I see it.
2. Olivia Colman, the favorite
3. Lady Gaga, a star is born
4. Melissa McCarthy, can you forgive me?
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Paper
2. Richard E. Grant, can you still forgive me?
3. Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
4. Sam Rockwell, Vice President
5. Sam Elliot, a star is born
The best actress in a supporting role
1. Regina King, if Beale Street could speak
This is a difficult category. I will continue to predict Regina King because of its popularity in Hollywood. However, I see this as a category ready to be upset. And I agree with Scott Feinberg, who said everyone can win. I think Marina de Tavira has a really good move in this category, giving Roma another victory to add to her collection.
2. Marina of Tavira, Rome
3. Amy Adams, Vice President
4. Emma Stone, the favorite
5. Rachel Weisz, the favorite
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Rome
2. Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
3. Adam McKay, Vice President
4. Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, the favorite
Original scenario
1. Green Paper, Nick Vallelonga, Peter Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly
Despite the eruption on Twitter, I think that, according to the WGA's behavior, the Green Paper still has that. But if not, then he could go to one of these. Paul Schrader, in particular, could win, since he is Paul Schrader. But the favorite could win, Vice could win, even Rome could win a sweep.
2. The first reformed, Paul Schrader
3. Vice, Adam McKay
4. The favorite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
5. Rome, Alfonso Cuaron
Adapted scenario
1. BlacKkKlansman – Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee
We all seem to agree that Spike Lee will finally win an Oscar in competition and that he will probably have a standing ovation. But if it's not him, Beale Street will win.
2. If Beale Street could speak – Barry Jenkins
3. A star is born – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
4. Can you forgive me – Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
5. Scruggs Buster Ballade – Joel and Ethan Coen
Cinematography
1. Roma
3. cold war
3. The favorite
4. Never look elsewhere
5. A star is born
Edition
1. BlackKklansman
2. Green paper
3. Rhapsody of Bohemia
4. The favorite
5. Vice
Production Design
1. black panther
2. Return of Mary Poppins
3. The favorite
4. Roma
5. First man
Sound mixing
1. black panther
2. First man
3. A star is born
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Roma
Sound editing
1. First man
2. black panther
3. Rhapsody of Bohemia
4. A quiet place
5. Roma
Costume design
1. black panther
2. The favorite
3. Marie Queen of Scotland
4. Return of Mary Poppins
5. Scruggs Buster
Visual effects
1. First man
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Player Loan A
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story
5. Christopher Robin
Original score
1. black panther
2. Return of Mary Poppins
3. If Beale Street could speak
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. dog island
Original song
1. Shallow – A star is born
2. I will fight – RBG
3. Where do lost things go? – The return of Mary Poppins
4. When a cowboy swaps his spurs for wings – Ballad of Buster Scruggs
5. All Stars – Black Panther
Makeup and hair
1. Vice
2. Mary Queen of Scotland
3. border
Cartoon
1. Spider-Man: in the Spider-Verse
2. Incredibles 2
3. dog island
4. Ralph breaks the Internet
5. Mirai
Documentary
1. Bridging the gap
2. RBG
3. Free Solo
4. Hale County this morning, tonight
5. Fathers and sons
Foreign language function
1. Roma (Mexico)
2. Cold War (Poland)
3. Capernaum (Lebanon)
4. The thieves on display (Japan)
5. Never Look Away (Germany)
Live Action Short
1. skin
2. mother
3. Marguerite
4. Fawn
5. Detention
Short documentary
1. Period End of sentence.
2. black sheep
3. End of game
4. lifeboat
5. A night in the garden
Animation short film
1. Bao
2. late afternoon
3. Animal behavior
4. A small step
5. weekends
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