Employment in the UK reaches a new record

The number of people working in the UK has continued to increase, with a record 32.6 million people employed between October and December, according to the latest figures from the Office of National Statistics.

The unemployment rate changed little over the three-month period to 1.36 million.

The unemployment rate, at 4%, is at its lowest level since the beginning of 1975.

Average weekly earnings rose 3.4% to £ 494.50 in December – after adjustment for inflation, this is the highest level since March 2011.

Between October and December, the number of employed persons increased by 167,000 from the previous quarter and 444,000 from the same period in 2017.

The employment rate – defined as the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who are working – was estimated at 75.8%, above 75.2% a year earlier, and at the highest figure since the beginning of the 1990s. comparable estimates in 1971.

Matt Hughes, Labor Market Manager at ONS, said: "The labor market remains robust, with the employment rate remaining at a record level and vacancies reaching a new record level.

"The unemployment rate has also gone down and for women, it has dropped below 4% for the very first time."

However, Andrew Wishart, a British economist at Capital Economics, warned that next month's figures may not be as optimistic.

"The labor market data do not reflect the shift in hiring surveys in December, with an increase in employment," he said.

"However, surveys have deteriorated more sharply in January, so a Brexit effect could begin to slow the growth of employment in the next batch of official data."

Analysis:

By David Dharshini, BBC Economic Correspondent

The job market remains robust despite the economy's sluggishness towards the end of last year – although the Brexit's fog effect may still be recorded.

According to recent trends, the majority of people who started work were previously inactive (students, foster families, long-term patients, etc.).

The demand for labor continues to support wage growth. Real wages have risen by more than 1% a year, overall better than in recent years, although about half the rate before the crisis.

There are so few signs of uncertainty regarding hiring related to Brexit so far – but the demand on the labor market tends to be significantly lower than the evolution of the production.

More recent employment surveys show a clear deterioration in January. A Brexit effect could therefore begin to weaken employment growth in the next batch of official data.

And productivity – output per hour – declined 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared with the previous year, as output grew more slowly than employment. Lack of progress in this area could weigh on long-term wage growth.

Skills shortages

Samuel Tombs, a British economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "As excess labor is extremely scarce and job offers reach a new record, workers are getting more success in their higher salary increases. to inflation.

"Regarding the future, we doubt that wage growth will fall below 3% this year."

In spite of wage increases and low unemployment, Suren Thiru, head of economic affairs at the British Chamber of Commerce, did not think the hardships of High Streets would benefit.

"The recent increase in real wage growth relative to consumer spending should be limited by the weakness of consumer confidence and the high level of household debt.

"The increase in the number of vacancies to a new record confirms that shortages of manpower and skills will continue to curb activity for some time, thus hindering growth and the productivity of the United Kingdom. "