Brexit is the British quarantine crisis

In case of doubt, British Prime Minister Theresa May proves once again that it is impossible to insert a square peg into a round hole, no matter how hard or how hard you insist.

You see that this is what the last three years of drama, melodrama and, all too often, the black comedy known as Brexit have really been. The simple story is that its supporters have promised impossible things, namely that the European Union would let Britain withdraw from the free movement of people in the bloc while letting it opt ​​for the free movement of goods of the group – that she had simply tried to pretend are not.

But what has changed now is that even this illusion of mbad becomes more difficult to maintain. Why is that? Well, much of this has to do with Northern Ireland – and more specifically with its border with its southern neighbor. The important thing to understand here is that not only is the EU a customs union, but it is a single market, which means that goods can move between countries without having to be controlled at the border, because share the same rules and regulations. Leaving the EU would be a bad thing for Britain as a whole – it should probably face shortages of food and medicine that should go through long lines of inspection at the border – but it would be even worse for Northern Ireland. This is because its open border with Ireland, one of the greatest achievements of the peace process 20 years ago, should be closed except at designated checkpoints.

From the government's point of view, this leaves three rather unpleasant choices. It can either take the whole of Britain out of the customs union and the single market of the European Union and let a real border stand between Ireland and the United States. North Ireland; it can leave only Northern Ireland in the single market of the European Union and let a real economic frontier be established between it and the rest of Britain; or else she can keep all of Great Britain both in the customs union and in the EU single market even after she has technically "left" the EU, in order to give it time to try to negotiate an agreement allowing it to withdraw from everything completely without requiring a hard boundary between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The latter option is called "Irish support" and, as you can imagine, this is the kind of exercise the government prefers. Not least because it would allow the government to say that Brexit took place when it did not really make sense.

The biggest problem, however, is that there does not seem to be any possible agreement to get Northern Ireland out of the EU customs union but leave its border open – it's the round peg and the This is likely to mean that Britain would remain indefinitely in the customs union itself. In which case, what would be the purpose of all this? Britain can both stay in the EU and try to do something productive for change. It is fearful that the Brexiteers' Conservatives will join Labor MPs in rejecting the May agreement of two of the three largest majorities in the history of Parliament.

The fact is that populism may be able to win in the short term, but the reality is always in the long run. The question, however, is how long does this long run. It can be a moment. Britain's problem is that it looks a little like a guy in a midlife crisis who wakes up one morning and decides to divorce (leaves EU), partly because he has largely overestimated his attractiveness (the importance of its economy). That is to say, he has the mistaken impression that everyone will want to go out with him (offer him free trade agreements) once he is alone. Not to mention that he did not rely on the fact that sharing custody of his children (the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland) meant that he did not have to worry about it. was not free to do what he wanted, but that he still had to coordinate things closely. his future wife (the EU).

Now, in the film version of this story, he realized late that he was in a better situation when he was married and begged his wife to bring him back just before the finalization of their I-Don. In real life, things are much more complicated than that. The Conservative and Labor parties have many Brexit supporters among them, so neither of them wants to oppose it firmly. At the same time, they do not want to do it unless there is a plan for what will follow. Parliament has just rejected a proposal to leave the EU. even without a new agreement in place. So, they are stuck, the only apparent option being May 's plan that would keep them in the EU customs union until they reach an agreement that' s right for them. they can not, and an extension of time so that they do not escape. the customs union of the EU before there is an agreement. It is the difference to say that you left the EU. when you have not done it, and saying that you will leave it when you do not do it.

But even that non-choice might be too difficult for them. It's Brexit, after all.