Japanese exports fell more slowly in February, with the CPI base level remaining stable, according to a poll by Reuters

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan's exports have probably declined much more slowly than the previous month in February, but weak global demand and trade friction between the United States and China continue to blur the outlook, a report said Friday. Reuters poll.

Exports are expected to have declined 0.9% in February from a year earlier, the 17-economist survey said, after dropping 8.4% in January, its biggest drop in the month. two years.

However, imports probably declined 5.8% in February, after falling 0.6% in January, according to the survey.

"We expect February exports to partially offset the (January) losses caused by the Lunar New Year holidays," said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at the Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute. . The holidays, which are causing significant business disruption in much of Asia, began in early February of this year and in mid-February, in 2018.

"But the country's exports to Asia, especially shipments of items related to information technology, should remain low."

The trade balance likely returned to a 310.2 billion yen ($ 2.78 billion) surplus over a 1.41 trillion yen deficit in January, the poll found.

World trade slowed as economic growth in China and Europe was weaker, and Washington and Beijing remained locked in an absolute customs battle, which weighed more and more heavily on the Japanese economy, which is dependent on exports.

The Ministry of Finance will release trade data at 8:50 am Japan time on Monday, March 18 (23:50 GMT, March 17).

In Japan, the consumer price index, which includes petroleum products but excludes the volatile cost of fresh food, is expected to have risen 0.8% in February, at the same pace as in January.

"Energy bills probably supported the core CPI, while prices for gasoline and telecommunications weighed," said Shinichiro Kobayashi, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting.

"The core CPI will likely remain gloomy for a while, as oil prices begin to fall and mobile operators will cut their phone rates."

The Ministry of Internal Affairs will release consumer price data at 22:30 Tokyo time on 22 March (23:30 GMT 21 March).

The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy parameters on Friday, but moderated its optimism about the strength of exports and manufacturing output, supporting growth, to reinforce risks abroad that could jeopardize economic recovery fragile.