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TAIPEI / MANILA – The chances of an armed clash in the South China Sea seem to increase rapidly, even as China paints a picture of regional harmony while working with its neighbors in Asia South East to a code of conduct for the crucial waterway.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters on March 8 in Beijing that China and other countries in the region were seeking to conclude the negotiations on the code by 2021. Wang said stated that this would provide "enhanced safeguards for the safety and freedom of navigation in the sea China and ASEAN must build trust, manage disputes, enhance cooperation and maintain stability."
However, Wang did not address the growing friction between China and two of its maritime neighbors, Vietnam and the Philippines. Given the militarization by China of the reefs and islands that it already possesses in the Paracel and Spratly ranges and its desire to control the geographical features administered by others, a conflict at sea – potentially involving the United States – seems to become more and more a reality. question of when, rather than if.
As a sign of increasing concern in the Philippines, the government has begun to openly question its decades-old Mutual Defense Treaty with Washington. The Spratly Islands, located near the north-west of the country, have recently seen the development of Chinese ships.
"The Philippines is not in conflict with anyone and will not be at war with anyone in the future," Philippine Secretary of Defense Delfin Lorenzana said in early March. "But the United States, with the increasing and frequent pbadage of its warships into the western Philippine Sea, is more likely to be involved in a war of firing.In this case and on the based on the MDT, the Philippines will automatically be involved. "
Tensions are also rising in the west, around the Paracel Islands. Two days before Wang's comments, a Chinese vessel struck and sunk a Vietnamese fishing boat near Discovery Reef in the Paracels, according to Hanoi. The Paracels are home to overlapping claims from Vietnam, China and Taiwan. The five fishermen on the Vietnamese boat were finally rescued, Hanoi said.
In early March, Filipino media reported that China had effectively claimed control of sandbars near the Philippine-run Thitu Island in the Spratlys. The sandbanks, adjacent to abundant fish stocks, were previously frequented by Filipino fishing boats, which are now repelled by what are in reality Chinese paramilitary boats posing as fishing boats.
In the Philippines, the fate of Thitu raises more and more concern. The mayor of Kalayaan City, responsible for Thitu, told the local press that he had witnessed an overflight of the island by a Chinese helicopter before returning to Subi Reef in late January. . In 2012, China dislodged the Philippines from Subi Reef, just 24 km away, to militarize and build a landing strip.
Philippine defense officials "naturally mistrust Chinese fishing vessels around the island of Pag-asa," said Jay Batongbacal, director of the Institute of Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea at Manila. "The possibility that China will take control of the island through unarmed militiamen has been considered."
Batongbacal added that "China's recent activities near Pag-asa are part of its" cabbage strategy "of saturating disputed maritime entities and areas with seemingly non-military badets and activities that limit freedom of movement of another applicant. "
The militia of fishing vessels is reinforced by two additional layers: the Chinese Coast Guard and the PLA Navy.
The cabbage strategy was developed by China in the waters also claimed by Vietnam in 2014, during the deployment of the Hayang Shiyou 981 deepwater rig, said Greg Poling, director of Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.
A Chinese oil platform in the waters also claimed by Vietnam
© Reuters
"There are hundreds of Chinese fishing boats on the reefs of Subi and Mischief every day and they do not fish, as the satellite images clearly show," as well as radar and other tools, he declares. "Their main purpose is to serve as a front line in baderting China's sovereignty over Spratlys, which means above all intimidating neighbors when they do things that China does not." do not like."
Poling said the boats serve as "eyes and ears" for the Chinese navy and coastguard. "
The role of the United States in the South China Sea is a major variable. On March 1, the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, went to Manila, as part of his territorial dispute with China, expressed the strongest statement of support.
"Any armed attack on Philippine forces, aircraft or public vessels in the South China Sea would entail mutual defense obligations under Article 4 of our mutual defense treaty," Pompeo told reporters.
Speaking Tuesday in the United States, Pompeo accused China of preventing Southeast Asian countries from developing their energy resources at sea through "coercive means." This prompted Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang to retaliate on Wednesday: "Nations outside the region must refrain from unrest and disrupt the harmonious situation."
Meanwhile, a flagship US Navy was anchored in Manila Bay on Wednesday. Captain Eric Anduze, commander of the USS Blue Ridge, reiterated the vow to "sail, fly and operate where the law allows us".
As the South China Sea is part of a global conflict between Beijing and Washington, China has opposed the US Navy's freedom of navigation operations in disputed waters. China also rejects US diplomatic criticism of the sea.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo highlighted the US commitment to the Philippines in Manila on March 1.
© AP
"We welcome well-meaning advice, but do not accept deliberate smears or interference," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said at a press conference on March 8, veiling United States. "the key to peace and stability in the South China Sea".
At the same time, however, the capital cities of Beijing and Southeast Asia seem to question the credibility of the commitments made by the Trump administration to keep open the increasingly militarized waters of the sea South China as part of its Indo-Pacific strategy.
"I think people had concerns when [Trump] The elections have only worsened and his foreign policy after more than two years only confirms the concern that he is not engaged in Asia, "said Huong Le Thu, senior badyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
In an interview with the Nikkei Asian Review, Philippine Navy leader Robert Empedrad supported FONOPS in Washington, despite Beijing's allegations that such initiatives are raising tension.
"The sea of the Western Philippines is an open sea," said Empredad, using the term used to refer to the South China Sea.
China has territorial maritime disputes with four of the ten members of ASEAN – the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei – and growing tensions with Indonesia near the southern tip of However, it is unlikely that the bloc, where China's mbadive influence over Cambodia and Laos has prevented even mild statements about the South China Sea, has been postponed.
Although Beijing's tactics of division and conquest can work in ASEAN, it is far from clear whether the pressure it exerts on the United States will be as successful.
The result? The ideal conditions for a miscalculation, perhaps triggered by overzealous Chinese "fishermen".
"Sooner or later, there will be a violent incident, presumably involving these militias and a Philippine or Vietnamese ship, which will step up to engage the naval forces before anyone can stop it," Poling warned. "And if the Philippines is involved, there is a good chance that the United States will be trained without China actually intending it to happen."
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