AI identifies which primates could carry the Zika virus

Zika, a species of the flavivirus genus that is transmitted mainly by mosquitoes, is badociated with mild symptoms in most adults, but with more serious complications in pregnant women and young children. It is related to microcephaly, a conbad anomaly in which the brain does not develop properly and which, in rare cases, can cause paralysis and death.

Mosquitoes are not the only animals that house Zika – primates too. With this in mind and to predict the spread of the disease, researchers at IBM and the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies used machine learning techniques to develop models to isolate likely carriers. They describe their work in an article published in the journal epidemics.

"When we model a disease …, data gaps can affect our ability to predict where people are at risk. Worldwide, only two primate species have been confirmed positive for Zika virus, "said Barbara Han, a disease ecologist at Cary Institute, in a statement. "We wanted to know how the marriage of two modeling techniques could help us overcome the little data available on the biology and ecology of primates – in order to identify surveillance priorities."

The researchers began by enriching a limited corpus with the help of two statistical tools: multiple imputation, which replaces the missing data with substituted values ​​reflecting uncertainty around true values, and learning Bayesian multi-label automatic. Specifically, they exploited the Multiply Imputed Chained Equations (MICE) system, an algorithmic system that sorts data sets for biological and ecological trait relationships between organisms, and derives missing information from these relationships.

The data points of 33 characteristics – such as metabolic rate, gestation period, litter size and behavior – were introduced in the aforementioned algorithm, which badigns risk scores to the species most likely to carry Zika among the 364 species of primates on the planet. "Like all pathogens, the Zika virus has unique requirements for what it needs in a host animal," Han said. "To determine which species could host Zika, we need to know what these traits are, what species possess these traits and which of these species can transmit the pathogen to humans. This is a lot of information, much of which is unknown. "

So which species were the most likely carriers? In the Americas, the bushy capuchin, the Venezuelan red howler and the white-faced capuchin top the list, as do the white-fronted capuchins and spider monkeys. Researchers say this is worrisome: all four species tend to live near populated areas, and White-fronted Capuchins are usually kept as pets and captured for live trade.

"These species are geographically widespread, with abundant populations living near centers of human population. They are looters of notorious crops. They are kept as pets. People present them in cities as tourist attractions and hunt them … In terms of the risk of spreading diseases, it is an extremely alarming result, "said co-author, Subho Majumdar.

Hopefully, the new research will pave the way for mitigation efforts in the years to come.