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The question that is asked at Downing Street this week is this: what will it take for more than 70 legislators to support it and get its contract? And in this negotiation, did the Prime Minister promise to withdraw within a few weeks in exchange for more votes from his own Conservative Party?
This suggestion is gaining ground in Westminster. Yesterday on BBC radio, Esther McVey, former cabinet minister, called in May to announce a "dignified departure" from No. 10 and to give way to a new Prime Minister who, did she baderted, would be more excited at the idea that the UK stands out from the situation. the European Union. This point of view is shared by a growing number of Conservative MPs.
McVey resigned from the Cabinet from May to last fall, after the Prime Minister accepted his agreement with Brussels. McVey says the withdrawal agreement is still a "bad deal" but that she has decided to vote in her favor when it returns to the Commons for the third time because she fears that Brexit does not happen at all.
McVey is not the only Conservative legislator to have changed sides and plans to support the deal in the Commons. Several MPs have announced that they have changed their minds in recent days. Their number is not yet set at 75 – the figure that May needs for the win – but it's a significant start.
Ministers spent the weekend discussing with the Democratic Union of Northern Ireland (DUP) Party, whose 10 MPs have so far opposed the agreement. , to persuade them to change their minds. The May government could even offer financial incentives in exchange for votes. It is thought that if the 10 lawmakers DUP change sides, many conservatives will follow.
Perspective of a long delay
However, it is possible that the vote tomorrow will be lifted if these 75 crucial votes do not materialize, because a third defeat could reduce the chances of a vote for a fourth time.
Instead, the prime minister could postpone the vote until next week after attending the summit of the European Council this week in Brussels – potentially his last as a British leader.
If this happens, the European Union will probably propose a long Brexit extension – beyond the short deadline until June – and force the UK to participate in the next European elections in May.
If the vote takes place on Tuesday, the result will decide the duration of this deadline.
According to conditions approved by the House of Commons last week, if she wins, she can go to the Brussels summit to request a short technical extension of the Brexit beyond March 29 – delaying her departure no later than 30 June. This application must be approved by the remaining 27 EU member states, even if it is unlikely that there is opposition.
If May loses the vote on her deal for a third time tomorrow, she will go to Brussels and ask for a much longer extension of the UK's departure beyond June 30 and possibly two years. Again, this will have to be approved by the EU leaders.
If this scenario materializes, Great Britain participates in the European elections and plans to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement. At this point, British lawmakers have been promised parliamentary time to reach consensus on a new Brexit deal.
But the prospect of a long delay worries conservative pro-Brexit MPs, who fear a two-year extension that could turn into no Brexit. It is this risk that causes many of them to change their minds and choose what they consider a relatively safer option: vote for the May agreement this week, no matter how much they see it wrong.
It is even possible that, if it loses this week, the Prime Minister, with only a few days before a possible noncore on March 29, could submit his agreement to the House of Commons for the fourth time next week with a new ultimatum : support the deal or face a two-year delay on Brexit.
In these circumstances, the Prime Minister may not need to promise to withdraw – she could finally get support for her deal by threatening Brexiteer lawmakers with losing what they want the most: Brexit itself.
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