The market could prepare for a disappointment following the Fed's decision on Wednesday



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The other problem is the Fed's balance sheet, which is not addressed by the dot graph or any of the other metrics provided by central bankers in the summary of economic projections.

Instead, the communication on this subject will be left to the post-meeting statement, which some in the market expect, could contain a time frame from which the Fed will end the reduction of its bond portfolio. with indications on the level of bank reserves once the process is complete. is complete.

The committee began to reduce its holdings of bonds in October 2017 by allowing a capped product of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities to decline each month. The process resulted in a reduction of about $ 450 billion, leaving about $ 4 trillion in the balance sheet total.

While market experts do not agree on the real impact of the balance sheet, the Fed has sought to allay concerns by signaling the imminent shutdown of the program. Markets are expecting an official announcement of the removal of proceeds from the sale this year, although Wednesday's announcement could include more precision.

If one of the terms of the problem was disappointing, it could cause more market problems.

"I think they're going to be a little vague about the timing and exact level of banks' reserves as they solve this problem," said Loh. "I would add that in something the market would expect to hear."

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