[ad_1]
If we believe Sir Bill Cash, the members voted tonight in favor of a process that will lead to a "constitutional revolution". (See 10:59) It is impossible to predict exactly where this will end, but Cash's claim seems hyperbolic.
MEPs voted to have more votes on Brexit. On Wednesday, it will be the ninth big debate on Brexit this year, and the first where the Commons is supposed to "regain control". Sir Oliver Letwin wishes that MPs vote on paper, not in the lobby groups of the divisions, on a wide range of Brexit options. But there are many reasons why this might not have the dramatic impact on species fears. Here are six.
1) Members have not yet been promised to vote freely on all measures, or even on any of them, but unless this happens, the vote may well be that's a repetition of what happened during normal votes on the Brexit amendments. Some ministers said it was useless to proceed with indicative votes without giving MPs a free vote, but Theresa May seems less enthusiastic. Speaking for the Labor Party, Sir Keir Starmer hinted this afternoon that Labor MPs would get free votes on some proposals but not others.
2) There is still no guarantee that there will be a majority for any plan – although Letwin can opt for a voting system that eliminates unpopular options until one remains.
3) The government would not be obliged to accept the projects judged the most popular by the deputies. In fact, May strongly hinted this afternoon that she would reject what many hope will emerge as the most widely supported idea – staying in a customs union with the United States. EU. (See 17:22.) Motions pbaded by Commons do not bind the government and it is very difficult for the legislature to force a prime minister to do something that she does not want to do.
4) Members could use Wednesday's debate to adopt another motion, which would give them more time for indicative votes at a later stage. In other words, the process could self-maintain. This would be of great concern to the ministers, especially if it would lead to time for the Commons to allow the Commons to pbad laws. But this could lead ministers to look for a way to try to replicate by sabotaging the Letwin process.
5) In any case, it is not clear that all options are on the ballot. Owen Smith, one of the most prominent supporters of a second referendum, said during the debate that this plan should be excluded at this stage. (See 21h19.)
6) The prospect that MPs are trying to push May towards a sweeter Brexit could possibly help her, persuading Tory Brexiters to back her plan up for a vote on Thursday to prevent Brexit from being diluted. There is no guarantee that this will happen, but it is not impossible.
That's all for me tonight.
My colleague Jedidaja Otte is taking over.
Source link
