China is the big winner of European chaos around Brexit



[ad_1]

Instead, they ended up talking about Brexit.

The fact that UK legislators have spent the last 33 months since the country voted for the EU to fail to hear about how to do so has thrown many keys into the workings bloc complexes, whose leaders desperately need to put in place unified policies on several issues, but on the contrary are constantly derailed by the only Member State that, at least in theory, does not want to be there.

Next month, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will travel to Brussels for a summit with European leaders, before traveling to Croatia for a meeting with representatives of an organization from 16 countries in central and eastern Europe. Eastern. This type of grouping could be used to divide the country. Enlarged EU.
Before the summit last week, the European Commission said that China "is both a cooperation partner with which the EU has very close objectives, a negotiating partner, with which the EU must seek a balance of interests, an economic competitor in search of technology, and a systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance ".
China is the largest trading partner of the EU, while Europe is the second largest country after the United States, with trade exceeding one billion dollars averaged each day. The development of a unified policy on how to interact with Beijing is a key issue for Brussels, and the EU can hardly afford to spoil everything.

However, there is considerable disagreement within the bloc about how to achieve this balance. Some members, especially Germany, are becoming increasingly bellicose towards Beijing, both as an economic and security challenge, while other countries remain eager to accommodate Chinese investments.

Italy and China

This eagerness was visible in Rome this month, as Italian leaders rolled out the Chinese President Xi Jinping's red carpet, which became the largest European economic group and the first member of the G7, to adhere to his trade and business initiative. 39, Belt and Road infrastructure.

Italy's participation in the Xi project represents not only an economic victory for Beijing, but also a potential for future use against the EU as a whole, said Lucrezia Poggetti, a research badociate at the I-39. Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies, based in Berlin (MERICS). ).

"China is very eager to treat the EU countries separately rather than as a bloc," she said. "In bilateral relations, China has the upper hand because of its enormous economic power compared to that of individual European countries".

She referred to an initiative by Greece and Hungary – two key allies of China on the continent – to alleviate criticism of Beijing's behavior in the controversial South China Sea and Intervention of Athens in 2017 to block an EU statement critical of China's human rights record.

"In both cases, Greece feared to upset the Chinese government and potentially lose access to economic opportunities promised by Beijing, so it broke ranks with the EU," Poggetti said. "Hungary has also been more openly close to China on the political level".

At a meeting in Brussels this month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that Beijing "strongly supports the process of European integration, strongly supports the EU to stay united and became stronger, and strongly supported Europe to play a greater role in international affairs ".
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands on the arrival of Xi Jinping for his meeting at Villa Madama in Rome on March 23, 2019 as part of a visit two days in Italy.

Chinese carrots

While Beijing historically has closer ties with some European countries (and weaker with the countries that had once invaded and colonized it), a recent and evolving dynamic has seen EU members 39 to confront China in intra-union quarrels.

Bruno Macaes, former Portuguese minister of Europe, warned this week that China was being used as a weapon by European states that sought to defend each other and exploited divisions between old and new for their own ends.

"The problem is that the EU does not have effective mechanisms to deal with serious conflicts between member states, prompting EU nations to call on outside actors to challenge the status quo. quo, "he said.

In particular, while the hostility towards the whole of the European project is spreading and affects not only the United Kingdom, but also Italy, Hungary and the United States. other Member States, the opportunities for China to find new willing partners are increasing.

"It is even easier for Beijing to widen the gap between European and Eurosceptic governments," Poggetti said. "The EU must prepare for the resistance of Italy – influential member of the EU as the founder of the Union and the third largest economy of the euro area – in favor of the EU. a common policy of China and Europe. "

Brexit is perhaps the ultimate Eurosceptic wedge in this respect. European and British politicians have warned that a UK located outside of the EU could become a rival, rather than a similar ally to Norway or Switzerland, and that investment and Chinese trade would be a key area of ​​competition.

A successful Britain at Brexit, supported by new trade agreements with China, could also encourage other member states to follow their own path.

Jonathan Sullivan, an expert on China at the University of Nottingham, said that "the power of the EU, as it is, in international trade and external relations, is based on acting in unison ".

"So, if a country wants to penetrate any sector in Europe, trying to promote disunity or" separate the Member States "and treat them individually is a powerful strategy," he said.

"Beijing has had difficulties dealing with the EU in many sectors for various reasons, and the incentive to try to weaken the EU's ability to act in a concerted and unified manner. is strong. "

Outside pressure

Macaes and others pointed out that Beijing was not the only major foreign power seeking to take advantage of European disunity. US President Donald Trump has also raised economic and diplomatic issues for European capitals willing to break with Brussels over points of disagreement with Washington, such as the Iran nuclear deal.

"Trump has tried the method, criticizing Germany for defense, suspending long-awaited political awards in front of Poland and the United Kingdom, and touting the merits of the Italian coalition," said Macaes.

"Russia is a long-time but extremely clumsy operator, and China understands how to fit into these debates."

Meeting this challenge will require something that has been strikingly missing from European policy in recent years: unity.

But while external pressure has so far largely favored a greater division, badysts believe that this could also help bring the bloc closer, as EU member states begin to perceive the costs badociated with to deal with an actor as powerful as China, and to return to the original goal. policies at the block level.

External pressures could also help trigger a long-needed reform of the way in which these policies are developed, allowing the EU to benefit equally for all its members.

European leaders just need to settle Brexit first. And the refugee crisis. And pbad the elections to the European Parliament. And put in place a plan to combat the effects of climate change. And…

[ad_2]
Source link