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We arrive only at the end of the first act of a very long and complicated play.
And yet, it is highly likely that Plan A – the Prime Minister's agreement already rejected twice in the House of Commons – is completely dead after the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland (DUP), which depends May, said that they could never support it.
From this interminable block, it is very difficult to predict the evolution of the coming weeks and months, for both the government and the United Kingdom, but let's try.
May promised to resign in exchange for Conservative votes for his agreement, and some conservative lawmakers changed sides.
It may seem that, given the DUP's decision to block it anyway, its offer was a waste of time – and yet, it's hard to see how the Prime Minister can hang on beyond anyway, given his authority and its credibility. but erased.
Succession plan?
It has been reported that a contest to find May's successor could start at the end of May, perhaps right after the new May 22 potential date at Brexit.
A six-week campaign would train a new Conservative leader – and a prime minister – by early July.
This timetable would coincide with that of Brussels, which will meet for a new session after the elections to the European Parliament in May.
The first task of the new Prime Minister will be to open the second phase of the Brexit negotiations with the European Union on a future commercial relationship between the two entities.
He or she will probably have a new team of negotiators, a new Brexit minister and maybe even another foreign secretary.
But the exact course of these negotiations will depend on who wins the leadership contest.
Many conservative lawmakers insist that the next Prime Minister must be someone who enthusiastically believes in Brexit, like former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson, or the former secretary of Brexit. , Dominic Raab.
Although there are several candidates from all the wings of the party and Brexit debate, the leadership race will be dominated by the Brexit issue and by the proximity of a trade agreement that the United Kingdom should have with the EU.
In theory, a fervent Brexiteer leader should propose new red lines for the next round of negotiations. And yet, paradoxically, perhaps the lesson learned from the difficult May mandate in the minds of the Conservatives will spur the new Prime Minister to adopt a more consensual approach.
Delicate process
No matter who is in charge, it is also true that parliamentary arithmetic – the disconcerting decomposition of figures that has repeatedly failed to break the stalemate – will not change under the new Prime Minister.
Britain will still have a suspended parliament, the government will still depend on DUP votes to carry out their important tasks. This suggests that the next round of negotiations could be very slow.
But if the new prime minister decides to be more consensual than May, a compromise is to be found in the House of Commons.
The indicative votes on Wednesday night showed that there was no majority left for any of the proposed solutions. However, the most popular option, which is to relax the customs union under Brexit, could end up in the trade round with the EU after May.
In fact, the initial withdrawal agreement may not rule out a more flexible Brexit because it concerns the initial process rather than the nature of a future relationship.
Curiously, the DUP abstained on the Customs Union motion, instead of voting against it. Rumor has it that they are inclined to a sweeter Brexit than May advocates – the most important problem for them is the integrity of the UK and Northern Ireland's support.
What could change the parameters, it is of course a general election.
The next national poll is not scheduled until 2022. Yet months of stalemate could mean that there is no other way out for British politics.
Like the Conservative leadership race, Brexit will dominate the campaign. It is possible that the opposition Labor Party will prevail and the Brexit negotiations will take a different turn.
It's not because May announced her departure that Brexit will be easier.
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