Quantum computers do not threaten Bitcoin (and may never do) [Updated]



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Quantum computers have long been called Bitcoin Achilles' heels (BTC) and the entire cryptocurrency industry.

As the name suggests, the entire industry revolves around cryptography. Thus a decentralized system can actually be built – using cryptographic methods to protect users from attack, misappropriation and counterfeiting.

Bitcoin and all other crypto-currencies represent software with certain rules to enable a specific type of system without trust for its users. If these rules are violated in any way, the software becomes unreliable and unusable. As such, any value that the software could provide to its users disappears immediately.

In short, this is the risk that quantum computers can present for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Because of their considerable advantage in computing speed, quantum computers could theoretically be used to disrupt the activity not only of a decentralized system, but also of any software using any type of encryption.

The vectors of attack

There are two main possible attack vectors for quantum computers. The first is for individual users, as quantum computers could theoretically decipher the encryption on the user's wallet. The computer can deduce the private key from an address only by displaying its public key, which is typically used to perform transactions on the network.

Bitcoin addresses are currently secured using a cryptographic method called the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature (ECDSA) algorithm. According to studies, ECDSA cryptography can be broken with the Shor algorithm but would take too long time with current computer hardware – in the order of millions of years.

However, the appearance of sufficiently powerful quantum computers would significantly reduce this delay, allowing an attacker to decode a portfolio in a short time.

The second potential attack method is to take control of the entire network. Thanks to the speed of calculation, a quantum computer could overwhelm the rest of the minor nodes of the Bitcoin network and reach at least 51% of the hash rate of the network. As such, the quantum computer would be able to create and validate blocks itself, erasing all the trust that users now have in the Bitcoin blockchain.

quantum cpu

The quantum debate

Although no one knows exactly what impact quantum computers will have on Bitcoin, developers agree that it will not make the network obsolete. First, quantum computers are still in their infancy – if Bitcoin and crypto-currencies are in their teens, all viable quantum computers are still learning to explore.

By 2019, IBM, Google and Intel were developing a handful of quantum computers. All have a capacity of less than 100 qubits. In order to break the current encryption methods used for Bitcoin addresses, the computer would need about 2300 qubits.

This puts into perspective the distance between quantum computers and the threat of bitcoin cryptographic methods. In addition, even the current capabilities achieved with quantum computers are already at the limit of currently available hardware.

To be able to dive into quantum space, calculations must be performed at the molecular level, which means that advances in physics and chemistry will have to accompany the development of quantum-capable processing chips. We must first resolve the limits of this material, before continuing development in the quantum space.

The big tech giants who are at the forefront of research and engineering in quantum computing sometimes allude to a possible development of sufficiently powerful quantum computing in the next 10 years. IBM, for example, already advises encrypted systems and databases to undergo a quantum verification test.

While this is sound advice, it must be remembered that technology giants are among the few quantum computing experts and that quantum proofing could be more costly than useful at the end of the day. actual hour.

quantum processor

Is Bitcoin doomed?

Although no one knows exactly what impact quantum computers will have on Bitcoin, the consensus is that they will not make the network obsolete. First, quantum computers are still in their infancy – if Bitcoin and crypto-currencies are in their teens, all viable quantum computers are still learning to explore.

By 2019, IBM, Google and Intel were developing a handful of quantum computers. All have a capacity of less than 100 qubits. In order to break the current encryption methods used for Bitcoin addresses, the computer would need about 1500 qubits. This puts into perspective the distance between quantum computers and the threat of bitcoin cryptographic methods.

By setting aside the calendar, there are already encryption methods that would be quantum-resistant. These are simply not viable to deploy when they are not needed. In addition, even the current capabilities achieved with quantum computers are already at the limit of currently available hardware. We must first resolve the limits of this material, before continuing development in the quantum space.

Quantum-Resistant Bitcoin

It should be kept in mind that most pessimistic comparisons consider the ideal state of quantum computers in the future and the current state of Bitcoin. However, this ignores the evolving nature of technology. At every stage of technological progress, new possibilities emerge, which materialize in the form of new software and hardware, which then generate entirely new products and services.

Bitcoin, as a living ecosystem, is also an evolving technology. The proof is the gradual and regular upgrade of the network of miners, from CPUs to GPUs and now to ASICs. Why would a quantum-resistant Bitcoin network not be viable? The exact form of the deployment is hard to imagine at the moment, but a quantum infusion bitcoin is likely to materialize when quantum computing becomes a widespread technology.

Adam Back 1, quantum computer 0. https://t.co/8yd2zWAOF6

– Samson Mow (@Excellion) January 13, 2019

In addition, the main development team working on Bitcoin is well aware of the possible risks of a powerful quantum computer. Although the threat is still relatively distant, the developers are already preparing solutions to solve all the problems related to quantification. Fears of a vulnerability of Bitcoin to quantum computing should be discarded, at least for the next 10 years.

Even in the case of a quantum apocalypse, where a fairly powerful quantum computer suddenly appears somewhere in the world, Bitcoin already has a mechanism for attenuation. By using only unique addresses, the quantum computer can never even attempt to decrypt the user's encryption key.

Is quantum computing closer than expected? Will Bitcoin succeed in implementing quantum-resistant algorithms before the first attempt of attack? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Twitter.

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