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the Pound sterling is down nearly 1.5% this week against the US Dollars to trade at 1.3024 before closing in New York on Friday. It is the discounted goals and invalidation levels that count in the weekly GBP / USD chart before the end of the month / quarter. Review this week's strategy webinar for deep ventilation of this configuration and more.
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Weekly price chart GBP / USD
Remarks: In my last GBP/ USD Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that, " The threat remains strong for the pound sterling within the limits of the upward formation we have identified to the troughs of 2018 and 2019. A weekly external reversal of parallel resistance at the beginning of the month continued to govern the price band. The recent downturn is now testing the line at 61.8% of the fork training.
The threat of a deeper retreat remains within the limits of the uptrend, with a break-down here to challenge key support and more broadly bullish invalidation to 1.2754-1.2801 – a region defined by the 2019 opening, the 61.8% retracement and fork support. Resistance is at 1.3296 to 1.3302 – A breach / closure above this threshold would be required to feed the next higher step targeting the closing / slope resistance of the 2017 week high to 1.3494.
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Bottom line:
The broader risk remains downweighted towards the end of the month / quarter, but in the end, the broader outlook remains constructive while the open-ended support over the year 1.2754. From the trading point of view, look for a reaction at this level of support at the beginning of the month – a break / close below would expose a movement on the lower parallel – an area of interest for a possible downward depletion achieved by the IS . I will post an update GBP / USD technical outlook once we have more clarity in short-term price action.
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GBP / USD Trader's Feeling
Looking for a fundamental perspective on the pound sterling? Check Weekly fundamentals in GBP.
- A summary of Sense of the client IG shows that traders are net GBP / USD – the ratio is +1.92 (65.8% traders are long) – bear reading
- The percentage of net-long traders is now its highest since Marchch tenth
- Long positions are26.5% higher than yesterday and 17.1% higher than last week
- Short positions are 28.0% lower than yesterday and 20.9% lower than last week
- We usually have a point of view opposite to the crowd, and the fact that traders are net-long suggests GBP/Prices in USD could continue to fall. Traders are longer net than yesterday And last week, and the combination of current positioning and the recent changes give us a stronger GBP/Contrarian trade bias bear USD from a sentimental point of view.
See how is evolving GBP/WED positioning of retail impact the trend Learn more about feeling!
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— Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Technical Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex
Other weekly technical forecast:
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