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Iran does not seem to have any respite, at least as far as the United States is concerned. Yesterday, Sigal Mandelker, Under-Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, told reporters in Singapore that Washington was exerting "intense pressure" on Iran this week.
"It is very important that these countries [Malaysia, Singapore, and others] to have significant visibility on the different ways in which the Iranian regime is using to deceive the international community with regard to oil shipments, "Mandelker said. She added that she would highlight the risks inherent in relations with Iran during meetings over the next few days with government officials in Malaysia, Singapore and India.
"This trip follows a further intense pressure we exerted on Iran. Last week, we took action against nuclear scientists and agencies, as well as against key personnel involved in the former Iranian regime's nuclear-weapon-backed entities, "Mandelker said. "We make them radioactive to the international community."
She added that the measures taken so far this week also targeted a network involved in an Iranian sanctions evasion scheme, which includes Iranian front companies, in UA and Turkey. She added that the United States also exercised "maximum pressure" on the Venezuelan government of President Nicolas Maduro.
The foreign policy approach of Trump's bulldog
Mendelker's comments arrive at a precarious moment for President Donald Trump. On the one hand, he has no doubt managed to use a harder position internationally than all his predecessors dating back to the Reagan administration from 1981 to 1989.
Trump's tough commercial actions against China, for example, which had sought bipartisan support in Washington, are bearing fruit and are forcing Beijing to contemplate non-negotiable systemic changes in its way of operating, including the theft of intellectual property rights and intellectual property rights. state support for its business sectors. In Venezuela, Trump's aggressive measures and new sanctions are severely hurting Maduro's government, particularly its ability to earn petrodollars, which should result in its demise. Trump's policy on Iran is also strikingly hard on Iran as its currency and economy are still lagging in the midst of popular unrest, especially among young Iranians. Related: China struggles to increase oil production
On the other hand, these foreign policy decisions could also haunt the president in the run-up to the 2020 election cycle. Due to Trump's tough stance against Iran and Venezuela, the two main OPEC producers, current support for oil prices persists. The loss of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels in world markets, as well as the success of the current oil production agreement between OPEC + and oil, push up oil prices to nearly $ 70 on barrel – a price level that Riyadh has said to be comfortable. On Friday morning, oil prices for the benchmark Brent global benchmark indexes in the US, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contracts traded on NYMEX were on track to post their most important first quarter for a decade, at the beginning of the financial crisis. During the first quarter of 2009, the two benchmark oil indexes increased by about 40%.
WTI futures were $ 59.56 per barrel at 02:11 GMT, up 26 cents (0.4%) since their last settlement. WTI futures are expected to increase for a fourth consecutive week and record an impressive 31% gain in the first quarter. Brent crude futures rose 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $ 68.12 per barrel. Brent futures are expected to increase 1.7% for the week and 27% for the first quarter.
The murky waters of Trump
The danger for Trump is that high oil prices translate into higher gasoline prices, placing the president in the line of sight of voters, especially voters who are voting or undecided, who could vote their wallet. next year instead of loyalty to the party. The average price of gasoline reached $ 2.69 on Thursday, up 28 cents from last month and 9 cents from last week, according to AAA. California has the highest average price in the country at $ 3.57, according to AAA. Alabama is the cheapest at $ 2.41. Related: IMO2020: Can we expect extreme price shocks?
In addition, RBOB gasoline futures have increased 42% since the beginning of the year, an evolution that once again prompted the President to turn to influence the production of oil and gas. 39; OPEC. Thursday, Trump tweeted "It is very important that OPEC increase the flow of oil. Global markets are fragile, with the price of oil becoming too high. Thank you!"
However, it is unlikely that OPEC, in addition to Saudi Arabia's de facto leader, is complying with Trump's tweets about mercy in the global oil markets. The last time the Saudis complied with the president's wishes, even via Twitter, they were caught off guard when he published several waivers for Iranian oil – an evolution that still disappoints the Saudis. This time, the president may be alone when he is trying to influence the global oil markets, and this proposal is not comforting for Trump's supporters as the 2020 approach approaches. .
By Tim Daiss for Oilprice.com
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