Has Abiy Ahmed turned Ethiopia into a one-man-show? | Africa

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – Befeqadu Hailu, a blogger and human rights defender, had good reason to celebrate the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on April 2 of last year.

A few days earlier, Hailu had been arrested for the fifth time. As usual, his profile had put him in trouble with the authoritarian state.

With millions of Ethiopians, he was hoping abiy would leave the country more than two years of political turmoil and tension.

The two most populous regional states, Amhara and Oromia, which account for about 65 percent of the estimated population of more than 100 million Ethiopians, have witnessed more than two years of unrest, with hundreds of deaths and deaths. thousands of wounded.

The protesters accused the ruling coalition, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Party (EPRDF), and in particular the longest-serving member of the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF), of enjoying political power. and disproportionate economy.

The TPLF represents the ethnic Tigrayans, who represent about 6% of the Ethiopian population.

The outcome of the 2020 elections will determine the future of Ahmed's political career, as well as the political future of Ethiopia.

Abebe Aynete, researcher

abiy came to power after months of secret negotiations, promising to change the repressive and violent image of the EPRDF.

abiy, originally from the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), promised to resolve deep ethnic and political divisions. Ethnic Oromos represent at least 35% of the Ethiopian population.

Hailu said that there was a myriad of unresolved challenges, abiy should be commended for its role in the release of thousands of political prisoners, the withdrawal of dissident groups from the list of terrorism and, recently, the adoption of a law in favor of civil society groups in Ethiopia.

The new Civil Society Proclamation prevents groups from soliciting 90% of funds from national sources. Activists, opposition politicians and human rights groups claimed that the previous law, promulgated in 2008, aimed to reduce the space for freedom of speech.

But there is still much to be done, Hailu explained.

"The legitimacy of the Ethiopian prime minister is based on political reforms," ​​he said. "I have identified a dozen laws that stifle the political and civic space of the country.

"Although Ahmed has started to reform the institution, I think it has fallen behind.In the end, I rely on my security through institutional reform and not at all. action of a single individual. "

For others, the pace of abiyThe reforms of society have raised questions about the future of the EPRDF.

abiy is the president of the EPRDF and the ODP.

EPRDF, which included four ethnic parties, followed a democratic pattern, that is, consensus within each constituent party had to be achieved before major political and economic reforms could be approved.

This is one of the reasons abiyThe predecessor of Hailemariam Desalegn was forced to resign.

After taking office, abiy no time wasted. It allowed dissident groups to enter the country, made peace with its rival rival, Eritrea, and embarked on a series of economic reforms.

Abebe Aynete, a researcher with the Ethiopian Foreign Relations Strategic Studies (EFRSS) think tank, said abiyThe measures taken by the EPRDF contrast with previous EPRDF consensus-building bureaucratic actions, but have created discomfort within the ruling coalition. There is a widespread perception that Ethiopia is now a one-man show.

"In December 2017, while Desalegn was still in power, the EPRDF had organized a 17-day internal debate, which finally resulted in an agreement on the implementation of political reforms.

"Ahmed made radical decisions on the deal, without being frustrated by the slow decision-making process of the party," Aynete said.

As part of the reform process, the dominant TPLF was set aside and the political wings of the ERDF for the Oromo and Amhara came under pressure from previously repressed ethnic nationalist movements.

Abebe said abiyNext year, the country will likely be difficult in the run-up to the May 2020 national elections.

AT a recent press conference, abiy recognized the influence that ethnic conflicts could have on the status of the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa.

AAddis Ababa is a mixed city of more than four million inhabitants, surrounded by Oromo settlements. Its rapid expansion was the subject of more than two years of unrest that put EPRDF on its knees, paving the way for abiyPrime Minister.

He tried to walk the tightrope trying to appease Oromo activists who want to claim "historical rights" over the city while baduring other layers of society that the city belongs to each Ethiopian.

Abiy's coverage reflects the intricacies of the government of a country where ethnic and religious identities are often intertwined and where dissatisfaction with the inefficiency and perceived discrimination badociated with the nostalgia for old unitary systems, is lively.

In September 2018, dozens of people were killed in and around Addis Ababa while the young Oromo ethnic group, who had come to the city to greet the leader of a previously banned rebel group, was killed. faced with other young people.

The status of Addis Ababa, the ethnic regime of the Ethiopian federation, the role of regional special police forces accused of human rights abuses and the Ethiopian Constitution, which confers on the states of the region the right to autonomy until secession, constitute challenges at a time. Although relatively popular, the minister can not solve his problems without democratic legitimacy.

"I hope that Ahmed will facilitate the holding of free and fair elections in 2020 compared to the last two national elections.Free and fair elections are the only way to sustainably deal with the different groups of people." opposite interests, "said Hailu.

Aynete said that Ethiopia was apparently entering a political coalition style, with the constituent parties of the EPRDF trying to find allies in opposition groups, abiyThe biggest challenge for the organization will be to hold free and fair elections in two years time.

"Ahmed's ruling party has questionable legitimacy [among] many Ethiopians, "Aynete." The results of the 2020 elections will decide the future of Ahmed's political career, as well as the political future of Ethiopia. "