Achieving sugar reduction goals could reduce childhood obesity and health costs

Reducing the sugar content of certain foods by 2020, in line with the UK government's policy goals, could reduce childhood obesity and related diseases, and save UK £ 286 million over 10 years, suggests a study published by The bmj aujourd & # 39; hui.

But these benefits could be easily lost if goals are not fully achieved or if the program causes unexpected changes in consumer or industry behavior, warn researchers.

Childhood obesity affects one in 10 children aged 4 to 5 and one in five children aged 11 to 12, while the proportion of obese adults has increased from 15% in 1993 to 26% in 2016.

In 2016, the UK government announced plans to work with food manufacturers to reduce by 20% the sugar content of some high-sugar products, such as cereals and confectionery, from now on. 2020.

The strategy consists of three sugar reduction approaches: reformulating products to contain less sugar, reducing portion sizes and moving sales of high-sugar products to low-sugar alternatives.

But the potential impacts of these measures on health have not been studied.

Thus, a team of researchers, led by Ben Amies-Cull of the University of Oxford, is committed to estimating the impact of this strategy on children's obesity and adults, badociated diseases and health costs.

Data from the National Food and Nutrition Survey (2012-13 and 2013-14) were used to simulate a scenario in which the strategy had been successfully implemented in England. Changes in weight of children and adults were then estimated and their impact on disease burden and health care costs was modeled.

Several hypotheses have been made. For example, the basic diet would remain unchanged (apart from the serving size or the sugar content of the targeted foods), and there would be no unexpected changes in eating habits or products (for example, individuals substituting foods due to differences in taste or manufacturers changing target nutrients such as salt).

The results show that the full realization of the government's sugar reduction targets could reduce by 5.5% the number of obese people aged 4 to 10, by 2.2% for 11 to 18 year olds, and by 5%. , 5% adults (from 19 to 80 years old). .

Calorie intake could be reduced by 25 kcal / day for children and 19 kcal / day for adults.

In the adult, this could lead to 155,000 fewer cases of type 2 diabetes, 3,500 cases of cardiovascular disease, 5,800 fewer cases of bowel cancer (colorectal) and a total saving of 286 million pounds in NHS over 10 years.

However, they warn that the potential benefits of the government's health strategy could be lost if one of the three sugar reduction approaches does not have the desired effect.

The limitations of this modeling study include the reliability of the survey data, which may have led to an underestimate of the effect.

The researchers say, however, that their findings have remained largely unchanged after further badysis and conclude that the sugar reduction strategy "could be an effective way to reduce the diseases and costs badociated with obesity, even though objectives must be achieved. "

Annalijn Conklin of the University of British Columbia explains in a related editorial that research is "an important contribution to the current knowledge of public benefits of public health collaborations".

Future studies could determine whether the government program is also an extension of the "status quo," she writes, and therefore whether the potential beneficial effects modeled by Amies-Cull and her colleagues would be attributable to the program or to an earlier program trajectory.

Finally, while the program can contribute to this, "a comprehensive solution to the problem of improving diets and reducing the burden of nutrition-related chronic diseases requires a multi-sectoral policy package that also includes British sugar, other tax tools and strict regulations "to improve public health," she concludes.

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