Here's how it's going to go (with Tesla)

April 19, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

The story of Tesla is fascinating. Whether you like the company or hate it, it's easy to get caught up in the story as if you were in a good movie. This is surely one of the reasons why so many people obsessively view the news and editorials of Tesla daily.

Another reason is that Tesla's vehicles are terribly bad – in a clbad of their own. But I'll be back in a minute.

People sometimes think or try to pretend that Tesla is a hype. If Elon Musk was not such a good drummer, Tesla would be nothing – the criticism goes away. I think that there is an element of truth in this. This element is that Elon Musk is a wonderful artist and storyteller. He is really funny, and adorable, open and stimulating.

As a sociologist by training, I find this aspect of Tesla's story fascinating. No doubt about it, Tesla would not have sold as many cars as she did without this secret sauce. And the social movement aspect of Tesla, and the whole life of Elon Musk, could be the subject of a long book. Plus, this element is often present with big technological changes – look at Apple and Steve Jobs, or … um, maybe it's not really that common.

At the end of history, the catalyst for a great technological change is often the technology itself. You are probably reading this on a tiny and powerful computer called "phone" because the technologies it contains have been steadily developing over the course of several decades and have become more and more accessible to normal people, while performing more and more advanced tasks.

Tesla is a great success because it entered the market for electric vehicles at the right time, helped lower the costs of the heart and brain of machines – batteries and computers – and had the vision to shoot all the components together to make a bady bad car, then another, and another, and another. Tesla has been a leader for years in the development of electric vehicle batteries, motors, inverters, autonomous driving technologies, computer hardware, software, seat production (history to come) and generally. Even looking at any of these issues in isolation, it may seem that Tesla is several years ahead of the competition in the world of electric vehicles. Looking at them completely, it is difficult to find the nearest Tesla company in this marathon.

Before thinking that I just lost myself in a vortex of hype Tesla, think about what this direction has translated recently. Tesla has totally dominated the electric vehicle market. It is also essentially the only car manufacturer to offer a clearly competitive electric vehicle on the market compared to the best-selling petrol cars. As I indicated a few days ago, the Tesla Model 3 was the best-selling car (of any type) in the Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland last month. In addition:

It was the # 1 luxury car in the US in the first quarter of 2019, the first or small mid-size luxury cars in 2018, the first electric vehicle in the US in the first quarter of 2019 and of 2018, the first best-selling car in California in the second half of 2018, the 11th best-selling car in the United States in 2018 and the 13th best-selling car in the first quarter of 2019, the car the most sold in the United States in terms of revenue in Q4 2018, the best-selling car to a US automaker in the second half of 2018 and, with the Model S, accounted for 20% of car sales in American luxury in 2018.

The Model 3 is the revolutionary car that many of us have thought about, but it's still a bit shocking to witness these successes. However, the important thing is that this market does not stay still – and Tesla, in particular, is a worried animal. With that in mind, what's happening around the corner?

The issue I've been struggling with for months is the issue of consumer awareness.

The problem is that the model 3 is much better than a BMW 3 Series or Mercedes C-Clbad, that its price is competitive compared to a Toyota Camry or a Honda Accord, but that it is invisible for many people or perceived as something completely different from what it is. expensive, dangerous, complicated to drive, etc.). How long will it take for the next wave of technology adopters on the S curve of disruptive technology to learn about Model 3 and its benefits – and then to buy the car?

In addition, while Model 3 dominates car competition, many buyers simply want a crossover, an SUV, or a van. It will take time to market competitive models in these categories in the same way that Model 3 is competitive in the sedan category.

To have a little fun and have something to check later to see how crazy I am, I decided to make a prediction on some important steps of Tesla. I have the impression that it is not a good thing to do, but I will do it anyway. Here's what I can say about how it's going to be with Tesla:

• In 2018, Tesla Model 3 becomes one of the top 5 most sold cars in the United States in the second half and the 11th best-selling car of the year. (Easy.)
• In the second half of 2018, Tesla's Model 3 is the best-selling vehicle in California. (Another easy.)
• In 2019, Tesla Model 3 becomes the best-selling luxury vehicle in the United States (all clbades). (Ok, the last "easy".)
• In 2019, Tesla Model 3 becomes the best-selling vehicle in Norway.
• In 2019, Tesla Model 3 is again one of the 15 best-selling cars in the United States and the best-selling luxury car.
• In 2020, Tesla Model 3 reaches 500,000 sales in one year.
• In 2020, Tesla Model 3 is one of the top 5 most sold cars in the United States.
• In 2021, Tesla Model Y is one of the top 10 best selling vehicles in the US and the model is again one of the top 10 most sold vehicles.
• In 2022, Tesla achieved 1 million vehicle sales in one year. (This is slightly below Elon Musk's forecast of 1.1 million sales in 2021).
• In 2022, the Tesla Model 3 is the best-selling car in the United States.
• In 2022, Tesla Model Y is the best-selling crossover in the United States.
• By 2022, Tesla Model 3 and Model Y are still two of the top 10 most sold vehicles in the United States.
• In 2023, Tesla achieves 2 to 3 million vehicle sales in one year.
• In 2023, the Tesla Model 3 is once again the best-selling car in the United States and the Model Y is one of the 5 best-selling vehicles in the United States.
• In 2024, Tesla, one of the 10 largest automakers in the world by volume, sells between 4 and 5 million vehicles.
• In 2024, Tesla Model 3 and Model Y are two of the 15 best-selling vehicles in the world.
• By 2025, Tesla is one of the top 5 automakers in the world.

What are your thoughts? Where do you think I'm crazy? Where do you think I'm on the spot?

Note: Some of these predictions could be skewed if the size of some Chinese automakers grows and their most fashionable models take control of global sales charts.

Keywords: EV Sales, Tesla, Tesla Model 2, Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model A, Tesla Model Y, Tesla Pickup, Tesla Sales

About the author

Zachary Shahan Zach tries to help the society to help herself (and other species). He spends most of his time here CleanTechnica as director and editor. He is also the president of Important media and the director / founder of Obsession EV and Solar love. Zach is recognized worldwide as an expert in electric vehicles, solar energy and energy storage. He has lectured on clean technologies at conferences in India, the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the United States and Canada.

Zach has long-term investments in TSLA, FSLR, SPWR, SEDG and ABB. After years devoted to sun protection and electric vehicles, he simply has confidence in these companies and has the impression that they are good clean tech companies in which to invest. it does not offer any professional investment advice and can not be held responsible for your loss of money, so do not rush.