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According to Giorgio Cafiero, Riyad finds it scandalous that US lawmakers are trying to interfere in the succession of Saudi Arabia.
Protesters in Istanbul in front of the Consulate General of Saudi Arabia following the murder of Khashoggi. (Hilmi Hacaloglu, VOA via Wikimedia Commons)
By Giorgio Cafiero
Special news from the consortium
SSince the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2, some US lawmakers have badumed the right and moral authority to dictate the succession line of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. In November, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham accused Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) was "crazy" and claimed that he "had to leave". Such a speech is significant, given that the United States has not been involved in the Al Saud family's internal power struggles since the 1960s. But whatever the preferences of some politicians in Washington regarding the succession of the Saudi Arabia, the United States will probably have to agree to deal with King Mohammed.
The ascendancy of MbS, which began in 2015, has transformed Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia's traditional model of leadership in the pre-MbS era, which was based on collective decision-making and the search for consensus among a large group of princes, has disappeared. Because of all the power available to MbS, it is hard to imagine a credible challenge to his power or position in the succession, regardless of the pressures that Washington tries to impose.
Trump with MbS in March 2017. (Official White House photo by Shealah Craighead)
Even before the Khashoggi case, MbS's power in Riyadh was so consolidated that the millennial prince was virtually unchallenged by other members of the Al Saud family. In recent months, MbS has consolidated its power in the Kingdom only in spite of all criticism of US legislators for MbS after the CIA's conclusion that it ordered the killing of Khashoggi. Even the political fallout from the journalist's badbadination last year did not allow MbS to mitigate his internal repression, or even target Saudi dissidents abroad to lure them into the kingdom. .
Thus, since the Saudi security apparatus and all the dominant state institutions are under the consolidated control of MbS, it is extremely difficult to imagine a successful opposition to the millennial prince from within. While many at the House of Saud do not like the MbS, they do not have the ability to stop it collectively.
As the Kingdom is an absolute monarchy, the decision to change the order of succession can only be made by King Salman. Although Salman, since he became Saudi monarch in January 2015, has twice fired / coerced two other heir princes – Prince Muqrin (in April 2015) and Prince Mohammed bin Nayef (in June 2017) – he showed no signs of dismissal. son of succession.
Lindsey Graham at the Senate Armed Services Committee Hearing on Military Strategy in the Middle East, 2015. (Sergeant Adrian Cadiz, Senior Master of the Air Force)
Riyadh: butt
From Riyadh's point of view, foreign powers must cease their activities and stop pretending naively that they can influence the process. In addition, outside pressure on King Salman for his dismissal of his son could backfire and give Saudi leaders more interest in standing alongside MbS. As Prince Turki al-Faisal, former head of the Saudi intelligence service and former ambbadador to Washington, said: [foreign] there are critics of the crown prince, the more he is popular in the kingdom. "
Indeed, officials in Riyadh are scandalous that US lawmakers are trying to weigh all its weight in the case of the succession of Saudi Arabia – a red line for the leaders of the Kingdom. For the ruling family of Saudi Arabia, changing the composition of the estate under pressure from the US government would mean weakness and enslavement of the world's superpower as Riyadh strives to project Saudi domination in the Middle East and a greater autonomy vis-à-vis the world more multipolar.
Such pressure from the United States is likely to accelerate Riyadh's geopolitical focus eastward, prompting Saudi Arabia to invest in closer relations with China, India, Pakistan and Russia. . As Saudi leaders question the United States' long-term commitment to Kingdom security, Riyadh is trying to diversify its global alliances and partnerships to gain greater geopolitical independence from traditional Western allies. Saudi Arabia. The silence of these non-Western governments on the Khashoggi issue underscores the concern of these non-Western states to avoid criticizing Saudi Arabia for human rights reasons – a factor that has made them earned goodwill with MbS – in order to take advantage of all those deeper ties with Riyadh can offer. In the case of China and Russia, the Khashoggi affair provided an opportunity to widen the gap between the United States and its main ally in the Persian Gulf.
Bilateral risk
If Trump's successor shares Senator Graham's view that MbS should never become King of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh's alliance with Washington could face an unprecedented bilateral crisis. Already, the reputation of MbS with US lawmakers and members of the Washington establishment having suffered enormous damage after the murder of Khashoggi, the crown prince simply can not go to Washington. While, for the moment, MbS can continue to work with a US president whose administration has bothered to give the Crown Prince the benefit of the doubt on the Khashoggi record, questions about Saudi Arabia. relations in the post-Trump era must destabilize Saudi leaders. Given the rhetoric about Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia. alliance from candidates for the Democratic presidency, such as Senator Bernie Sanders and the representative of the Republic. Tulsi Gabbardsuch concerns can not be ruled out by MbS.
Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of a meeting with Saudi leaders on December 1, 2018. (Kremlin)
Of course, there is a potential scenario in which MbS is targeted inside the country, which could have the same fate as Anwar Sadat, the badbadinated Egyptian president. This would prevent the Crown Prince from becoming the guardian of the two holy mosques (official title of the King of Saudi Arabia since 1986). But such a scenario seems unlikely. What is much more likely is that the MbS will become the next king of Saudi Arabia, even if it fuels the anger of the US Senate. Even though many officials in Washington worry a lot of MbS, it will probably be necessary to accept the unacceptable. The United States will face, in one way or another, King Mohammed, Washington's main Arab ally, and the world's leading oil production and export country.
Without a doubt, the fact that the MbS will become the next Saudi king will have consequences throughout the MENA region and beyond. As evidenced by the war in Yemen, the blockade of Qatar, the Saudi-Canadian diplomatic niche of August 2018, the arrests of Ritz Carlton and the Saad Hariri saga of 2017, the millennial prince made foreign policy decisions that reflect his recklessness and his impulsive thinking. If MbS has already created such crises for Saudi Arabia and its relations with Washington over the past four years, it's really mind-boggling to think of himself as the next King of Arabia Arabia, could do to change the Kingdom and the Greater Middle East over the next four or five decades if it reigns until its natural death.
Giorgio Cafiero (@GiorgioCafiero) is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics (@GulfStateAnalyt), a geopolitical risk consulting firm based in Washington.
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