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April 27, 2019 by Michael Barnard
Too bad the poor ICE sports sedan, unloved, new or occasional compared to the Tesla Model 3
Early January, CleanTechnica published an evaluation of the number of 3 Tesla models available for resale in the United States, where most models 3 had been sold. At the time, 140,000 had been sold new and 78 were on sale in the used market. It was 30 to 40 times less than Audis and BMW equivalents for essentially the same period. There were more than 10 times more equivalent cars in supermarkets, such as the Chevrolet Malibu and Ford Focus, for sale. Oops.
Few weeks later CleanTechnica reported that Kelley Blue Book had better resale value projections than any other car, of any type, but only received the headline award in the electric car category.
It does not look like Oldsmobile from my grandfather
Two reviews of the dataset used in the initial badysis deserve to be examined. The first was that the model years of the existing builders would start selling around the month of August of the previous year, a trend that will eventually lead to the sale of cars from the 2040 model year to 2037 Yes, if this continues, you will be able to buy a car 'of the future' from legacy manufacturers. Or you could buy a Tesla today. I'm just saying. But all the same, a fair point for a car that was available in volume for months compared to cars that were available in volume for a year and a half.
The second was that the statistics on used cars at that time could be distorted by the refund of the federal tax on electric vehicles. If people sold their Tesla Model 3 before the start of 2019, they would not get the $ 7,500 rebate. This was economically interesting for buyers in a direct way.
The combination of both potentially invalidated the results, which seemed really bad for any car manufacturer whose initials were not Tesla. CleanTechnica As we are interested in all the statistics, we will be doing a quarterly badessment of this key measure to see if it is as sad for Tesla's competitors as it seemed at the outset.
To answer the first data problem, we will only consider the 2019 used cars compared to the 3 Tesla model and we will limit ourselves to the third and fourth quarters of 2018 and 201 201, even if the 3 Tesla model is on sale in smaller number since the first quarter, excluding nearly 25,000 Teslas. To answer the second question, we will use current used car data from the end of April 2019, which is 3.5 months after last year's lockdown for last year's buyers.
Since the Tesla Model 3 mbadively outperforms all the individual models of its major competitors, we will also be looking at more of their cars. In January, we only watched the BMW 3 Series and the Audi A4. This time we will look at the BMW 2, 3, 4 and 5 series as well as the Audi A3, A4, A5 and A6 versions. After all, this seems to be the comparison in terms of sales. Fortunately, CleanTechnica regularly reports on this, so the data is at your fingertips.
Then we will do exactly the same thing as at the beginning of January. In Autotrader.com, we will search for all 3 Tesla models used and certified for the United States, as well as all BMW and Audi 2019 options only.
If one or the other criticism was correct, we would expect to see a much better ratio of used BMWs and Audis on Tesla Model 3. And we do. However, Teutonic luxury sport sedans still have a bad side.
That's right, instead of 30 to 40 times more owners giving up their German cars than the Tesla Model 3, there are now only 3 to 12 times more owners returning their cars quickly. Meeting rooms in Germany must be filled joy concerned men in suits. Oh, wait. This round strangely 1000 for BMW? Autotrader has only 1,000 results, then more than 1,000. The numbers are actually worse than what they are looking for for any of these cars. 12: 1 is the best scenario for BMW.
In January, we also looked at cars that sold about equal numbers of vehicles, not the annoying performance of the BMW and Audi lines. At the time, we had looked at the Chevrolet Malibu and the Ford Focus, which were selling about the same number of cars as the Tesla Model 3 in 2018. This time, we'll be a little more specific and look at the last half year. from 2018 and previous years. first quarter of 2019 for a closer approximation of equality.
CleanTechnica keeps track of the best-selling cars as well as the best-selling luxury cars. So we were able to quickly bademble a view to three quarters of the best-selling cars from July 2018 to March 2019. It turns out that the Tesla 3 model was the 6th best-selling car of all types for this period , which is not surprising given that it was close to fifth place in Q3 and Q4 last year, it had lost half of its US tax credit in early 2019, and Tesla was more focused on the achievement abroad last quarter.
This is clearly in the Nissan Sentra and Nissan Altima ranges, but that seems unfair to Nissan, so let's expand that to the Honda Accord and the Hyundai Elantra. What are the figures used for these cars sold in an equivalent way?
This seems less hard for Tesla's competitors. It's good that we have extended it, otherwise we would have had the skewed impression that all similar sales cars were humiliated, as opposed to Nissans. The Honda Accord, according to this reduction (which excludes 25,000 sales of Tesla Model 3), is slightly better than Tesla in terms of satisfied owners. The rest, not so much, with 1.5 to 5.4 times more new owners who say goodbye. If we add the 25,000 cars, the Honda displays 1.1 times the resale ratio of Tesla. Both approaches are questionable, but we have chosen the same sales and that is what we will stick to.
Of course, this is an interpretation. The other is that the Tesla Model 3 do not last as long on the second-hand market as most other cars, but are recovered as soon as they appear. It's even worse for others.
And the numbers seem better for other manufacturers than three months ago. Is this a trend? Two data points are insufficient to say. The more data points we have each quarter, we will have a better sense.
Another thing to consider in these data is that the percentage of Tesla Model 3 for resale jumped by 50% from 0.06% to 0.09%. It is still a tiny figure and a point measurement, imperfect, but nevertheless interesting. It may be that the sample was taken from Autotrader at a time when the number of Teslas Model 3s available for resale was unusually high or unusually low. We contacted Autotrader to ask if there is a more complete database that could be interviewed or if they had their own point of view to help them. And failing that, the best way to solve this problem in three months, when we come back to the badysis, is to choose three times in time and calculate them on average. If there had been significant discrepancies at one point, the results would probably have been presented three months ago, but maybe not.
Anyway, the competitors of the luxury sedan Tesla are on sale at an extraordinary rate compared to the model 3. This is after the owners of Tesla have filled the credit repayment gap. tax and have only focused on the 2019 models. It's closer to a comparison between apples. And among cars with similar volume, only one car, the Honda Accord, was able to beat Tesla on this one-off sample.
If the number of used cars compared to the number of cars sold is a credible measure of consumer demand, it is clear that the Tesla beats its competitors at several price levels and among all buyers. This is a strong sign of consumer will for the 3 Tesla model and their satisfaction.
Have a better source of data? Have a different interpretation? Do you have new criticisms about the methodology or the approach? Let us know in the comments.
Keywords: Audi, Autotrader.com, BMW, Honda, Hyundai, Nissan, Tesla, Tesla Model 3, USA, Used Cars
About the author
Michael Barnard is Chief Strategist at TFIE Strategy Inc. He works with startups, existing companies and investors to identify opportunities for significant growth in bottom line and cost reduction in our fast-changing world. He is editor of The Future is Electric, a publication of Medium. He regularly publishes low-carbon technology and policy badyzes at sites such as Newsweek, Slate, Forbes, Huffington Post, Quartz, CleanTechnica and RenewEconomy, and his work is routinely included in manuals. Third party articles on his badyzes and interviews have been published in dozens of news sites around the world and have reached the top spot on Reddit Science. Much of his work comes from Quora.com, where Mike is a leading writer every year since 2012. He is available for consulting badignments, speaking engagements and positions on the board of directors.
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