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At the call of the first quarter last week, Dennis Muilenburg, chairman of Boeing's board of directors, was reserved to answer questions regarding the new aircraft at the center of the market (NMA), also known by the sector observers under the number 797. The company is rightly focused on getting the 737 MAX in the air, but the surrounding circumstances the 737 MAX can be an argument for the advancement of the 797 program. Some industry badysts believe that Boeing would be interested in making a commitment soon.
Boeing Corporate Offices
Boeing
"At Boeing Capital's recent Boeing conference in New York, Boeing reaffirmed its confidence in the NAM market as they find a gap between the widebody market (150-200 pax / 3000 NM) and the widebody market. (350 PAX / over 6,000 NM) that can be filled by the NMA; an airplane with 250 seats or more that they believe would require 2,000 aircraft, "said Mylne Egrave; Scholnick, Senior Advisor at ICF Aviation Group. "At the 1T19 results conference, they were a little less firm in the announcement at the Paris Air Show, as originally planned, as they are devoting all their resources to the Max situation. . It was actually the first time that they mentioned that there was a potential effect on the MAX's NMA. They are still looking to make it available by the mid-2020s, but are now making it a "potential opportunity" with the board making a firm decision. "
Fleet data from the aeronautical industry market information site ch-aviation GmBH, reveals a significant replacement market for the 797 NMA to be filled. These planes, because of load or pbadenger capacity and range constraints, can not be easily replaced by a 737MAX or A321LR.
As of April 25, 737 Boeing 767 badets were in service for 88 carriers. Of these, 422 aircraft from 61 carriers are configured in pbadenger configuration and 38 carriers use the B767 on scheduled pbadenger flights. There are 669 Boeing 757 active badets for 61 carriers. Of these, 357 aircraft of 38 carriers are configured for pbadenger service and 16 carriers are actively using the B757 on scheduled pbadenger flights.
Among the major customers of both types of aircraft, there are US airlines, with Delta Air Lines in the lead, which operate 78 Boeing 767 and 122 Boeing 757. United Airlines operates 50 Boeing 767 and 76 Boeing 757. American Airlines operates 22 Boeing 767 and 37 Boeing 757.
Airbus may have advanced Boeing's strong argument for the NMA 797 program, highlighting the additional demand for NMAs from smaller replacement companies. When the European manufacturer stated that Boeing's NMA could bleed 737 model ordersthey recognized an overlap in demand in terms of range and aircraft capacity, which could also cause the A320 competing program to lose orders. Airbus's argument that the new A321LR variant (long range) responds to a potential NMA market confirms the overlap. The challenges currently facing the 737 MAX could allow Boeing to hold a potential share of this overlapping market, but there is no guarantee that Airbus can meet this need.
While the A321LR is well received, the current operators of the 757 and 767 have not rushed to the alternative Airbus. According to ch-aviation GmBH, the variant A321LR would have received 161 orders, including 81 to lessors. With the exception of TAP, which currently rents Boeing 767 aircraft, the order books do not overlap.
The A321LR could, however, perform better at the upcoming Paris Air Show, Airbus gaining the loss of confidence in Boeing. This instead creates a sense of urgency for Boeing to announce its commitment to the NMA, thus dispelling the doubt about potential NMA customers who have been more than willing to wait, including Delta, United and American.
Addison Schonland, an airline badyst and founder of AirInsight, says the fate of the NMA is hard to predict, given Boeing's 737 MAX priorities.
"That's the $ 64 million question," says Schonland. "I think the MAX faces a uphill comeback. Under normal circumstances, Boeing would proceed with 797, but it is clear that the arguments in favor of 797 are difficult. Boeing took a long time to get here. It seems that the delays of 787 had a long impact. At last year's Farnborough Air Show, GE put forward the argument that the market [for the NMA] was a question. Given the tight market and the fierce battle for MAX, Boeing could push 797 louder and faster, but Boeing seems determined to save the MAX. In addition to the MAX 8, Airbus is cleaning larger models. There are many moving parts and difficult compromises. "
The issue facing these mid-market mid-market airlines is whether their operational needs are better met by pushing the technical boundaries of existing designs or waiting for the ideal solution. Boeing can help airlines answer this question.
"The airlines use larger, narrow-body aircraft and the A321 order book is high. That's why Boeing needs an answer, "Scholnick said. "The NMA would be a revenue engine for Boeing and the next source of success. The NMA will also be a good aircraft to operate the Boeing joint venture with Embraer. "
Given the cash flow that may result from the 737 MAX issues, can Boeing commit to a new program at this point?
"The R & D and capital needed for the NMA would be around $ 5-7 billion and before MAX was issued, it was not a problem," says Scholnick. "This is still not a problem for Boeing, but everything will depend on the length of the grounding."
"I think it's very much on the table, it's just a matter of timing, because Boeing would not want to be distracted by the NNA while solving the MAX, "says Scholnick. "As soon as MAX's issues are resolved and confidence is restored, all of these are key factors for Boeing to move forward."
The strongest argument is perhaps that the NMA would give Boeing the opportunity to be flexible, thus helping to deflect the debate over the 737 MAX's challenges as the manufacturer regains the confidence of the # 39; industry.
"The demand is there, the airlines want bigger narrow-body aircraft and new technologies. If the Max is resolved quickly, he will be on the table again, as Boeing needs a new cell for the next decade, "Scholnick said.
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At the call of the first quarter last week, Dennis Muilenburg, chairman of Boeing's board of directors, was reserved to answer questions regarding the new aircraft at the center of the market (NMA), also known by the sector observers under number 797. The company is rightly focused on putting the 737 MAX back in the air, but the circumstances surrounding the 737 MAX could be an argument for continuing the 797 program. Some industry badysts believe that Boeing would be interested in committing soon.
Boeing Corporate Offices
Boeing
"At Boeing Capital's recent Boeing conference in New York, Boeing reaffirmed its confidence in the NAM market as they find a gap between the widebody market (150-200 pax / 3000 NM) and the widebody market. (350 PAX / over 6,000 NM) that can be filled by the NMA; a plane with 250 seats or more that they think needs 2,000 aircraft, "said Mylène Scholnick, senior advisor at ICF Aviation Group. "At the results conference of 1T19, they were a little less firm with regard to the announcement at the Paris Air Show, as originally planned, as they put all the resources and focus on Max situation. It was actually the first time that they mentioned that there was a potential effect on the MAX's NMA. They are still looking to make it available by the mid-2020s, but are now making it a "potential opportunity" with the board making a firm decision. "
Fleet data from the Aerospace Industry Market Information site, Ch-GmBH aviation, reveal a significant replacement market for the 797 NMA. Due to load capacity, pbadenger and distance constraints, these aircraft may not be easily replaced by 737MAX or A321LR.
As of April 25, 737 Boeing 767 badets were in service for 88 carriers. Of these, 422 aircraft from 61 carriers are configured in pbadenger configuration and 38 carriers use the B767 on scheduled pbadenger flights. There are 669 Boeing 757 active badets for 61 carriers. Of these, 357 aircraft of 38 carriers are configured for pbadenger service and 16 carriers are actively using the B757 on scheduled pbadenger flights.
Among the major customers of both types of aircraft, there are US airlines, with Delta Air Lines in the lead, which operate 78 Boeing 767 and 122 Boeing 757. United Airlines operates 50 Boeing 767 and 76 Boeing 757. American Airlines operates 22 Boeing 767 and 37 Boeing 757.
Airbus may have advanced Boeing's strong argument for the NMA 797 program, highlighting the additional demand for NMAs from smaller replacement companies. When the European manufacturer said Boeing's NMA was in danger of losing 737 orders, they acknowledged an overlap in demand in terms of aircraft range and capacity, which could also cause the A320 competing program to lose orders . Airbus's argument that the new A321LR variant (long range) responds to a potential NMA market confirms the overlap. The challenges currently facing the 737 MAX could allow Boeing to hold a potential share of this overlapping market, but there is no guarantee that Airbus can meet this need.
While the A321LR is well received, the current operators of the 757 and 767 have not rushed to the alternative Airbus. According to ch-aviation GmBH, the variant A321LR would have received 161 orders, including 81 to lessors. With the exception of TAP, which currently rents Boeing 767 aircraft, the order books do not overlap.
The A321LR could, however, perform better at the upcoming Paris Air Show, Airbus gaining the loss of confidence in Boeing. Rather, it creates a sense of urgency for Boeing to announce a commitment to the NMA, dispelling doubt about potential NMA customers who were more than willing to wait, including Delta. , United and American.
Addison Schonland, an airline badyst and founder of AirInsight, says the fate of the NMA is hard to predict, given Boeing's 737 MAX priorities.
"That's the $ 64 million question," says Schonland. "I think the MAX faces a uphill comeback. Under normal circumstances, Boeing would proceed with 797, but it is clear that the arguments in favor of 797 are difficult. Boeing took a long time to get here. It seems that the delays of 787 had a long impact. At last year's Farnborough Air Show, GE put forward the argument that the market [for the NMA] was a question. Given the tight market and the fierce battle for MAX, Boeing could push 797 louder and faster, but Boeing seems determined to save the MAX. In addition to the MAX 8, Airbus is cleaning larger models. There are many moving parts and difficult compromises. "
The issue facing these mid-market mid-market airlines is whether their operational needs are better met by pushing the technical boundaries of existing designs or waiting for the ideal solution. Boeing can help airlines answer this question.
"The airlines use larger, narrow-body aircraft and the A321 order book is high. That's why Boeing needs an answer, "Scholnick said. "The NMA would be a revenue engine for Boeing and the next source of success. The NMA will also be a good aircraft to operate the Boeing joint venture with Embraer. "
Given the cash flow that may result from the 737 MAX issues, can Boeing commit to a new program at this point?
"The R & D and capital needed for the NMA would rise to around $ 5-7 billion and before the MAX issue, it was not a problem," Scholnick says. "This is still not a problem for Boeing, but everything will depend on the length of the grounding."
"I think it's very much on the table, it's just a matter of timing, because Boeing would not want to be distracted by the NNA while solving the MAX, "says Scholnick. "As soon as MAX's issues are resolved and confidence is restored, all of these are key factors for Boeing to move forward."
The strongest argument is perhaps that the NMA would give Boeing the opportunity to be flexible, thus helping to deflect the debate over the 737 MAX's challenges as the manufacturer regains the confidence of the # 39; industry.
"The demand is there, the airlines want bigger narrow-body aircraft and new technologies. If the Max is resolved quickly, he will be on the table again, as Boeing needs a new cell for the next decade, "Scholnick said.
