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Successful global efforts to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions would likely stimulate GDP growth in the poorest countries over the next 30 years, according to new research published in Climate change.
The researchers examined the impact that global climate change mitigation would have on the economies of the poorest countries – particularly Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia. Hurricanes Idai and Kenneth have recently been devastated by cyclones in Mozambique and Malawi, and have demonstrated in a striking way the disastrous effects that extreme weather events can have on these economies. Climate change is generally expected to increase the intensity and frequency of these extreme weather events.
The study shows that beyond the obvious benefits of a reduction in extreme weather conditions in the long run, global mitigation efforts would also reduce oil prices in the coming decades, which would translate into a considerable economic advantage for the poorest countries.
"It is perfectly clear that many low-income countries will suffer the consequences of long-term climate change and that successful efforts to limit emissions will mitigate this impact," said lead author Channing Arndt, director of the Environment and Production Division. Technology Division of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
"Our research now provides another rationale for strong climate action: the economic benefits of mitigation are coming much sooner than expected."
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions creates two sources of economic gains for the poorest countries. First, effective global mitigation policies would reduce changes in local weather conditions and reduce the risks of damaging events such as unprecedented rainfall, recurring droughts and extremely high temperatures, which would allow for growth. higher than that achieved without extreme climate change and extreme weather activity.
Secondly, effective mitigation policies would cause a drop in oil prices due to a reduction in oil demand. If the richest countries take the lead in limiting their oil consumption, low-income countries will be able to make a transition a little later while benefiting from much lower oil prices during the transition period. Since almost all low-income countries are net importers of oil, such price declines would represent a significant economic windfall.
Research suggests that by 2050, these two sources of economic benefits could increase average GDP in Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia by 2 to 6 percentage points – gains that could not be achieved. if greenhouse gas emissions continued unabated.
"Previous research on the economic impacts of climate change mitigation tended to group together oil exporters, such as Nigeria and Angola, and oil importers, such as Malawi and Zambia. , in a single aggregated region that exports and imports oil, "said Sergey Paltsev, deputy director of MIT's joint program on Science and Global Change Policy.
"However, when looking at the impacts at the country level, most low-income countries not only benefit from a more stable climate, but also lower fuel prices because they are net importers of fuel and Import volumes are large relative to size. of their savings. "
How emissions policies should be structured globally remains an open question. The models producing these results badume that low-income countries have the potential to transition more slowly because their contributions to global emissions are relatively low and that such an exemption allows low-income countries to benefit from low-income countries. Experience accumulated elsewhere.
But researchers cautioned that for climate mitigation to be effective, some developing countries will not be able to be exempted for long – many middle-income countries will soon have to comply with emission reductions. required.
"The impact of climate change is unlikely to be distributed evenly across the globe, nor will the costs badociated with reducing emissions," Arndt said.
"We want to limit the adverse effects of climate change on the environment and on people, especially the poor, while avoiding harming development prospects. The results of this research in terms of effective mitigation could help us achieve this goal. "
For more information on this new research and to access the full study, click here.
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