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- Bitcoin is expected to end in late April with gains of around 26%. This growth is the third consecutive monthly increase and the first series of consecutive wins since the last quarter of 2017.
- A declining channel break on the monthly chart confirms a long-term bullish reversal. A similar breakout in October 2015 paved the way for a record $ 20,000 increase.
- Bitcoin could record stellar gains in May if the 30-day MA, currently at $ 5,142, cancels the recent pullback. In this case, the price could reach $ 6,000.
- A closing under the 30-day AM at $ 5,142 would validate the divergence of the bearish indicator and would allow a deeper fall to the 50-day AM, currently at $ 4,675.
Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to confirm a long-term bullish turnaround with a first run of consecutive wins for more than a year.
The crypto market leader is currently trading at $ 5,166, representing a 26.58% gain on the monthly opening price of $ 4,081, after gaining 9.8 and 8.16% in February and March, respectively, according to CoinDesk's BitPIin Price Index (BPI).
This is the first three-month increase since the last quarter of 2017. At the time, cryptocurrency was appreciated by 48%, 54% and 39% in October, November and December, respectively.
- The previous three-month bull of Bitcoin ended with record prices of $ 20,000 in December 2017. Cryptocurrency entered a bear market in the first quarter of 2018, reaching a low of nearly $ 3,100 in December 2018.
- Cryptocurrency ended the record six-month series of losses with a 9.8% gain in February after gaining only three months in 2018.
- The monthly gain of 26.58% at the time of the press is the largest since April 2018, when prices rose by 33%.
April's gains would have been more than 35 percent if cryptocurrency had managed to hold its five-month high above $ 5,600 on April 23.
Nevertheless, BTC made a final exploit at the peak of the bull market in the last months of 2017 and extended its three-year victory in April.
More importantly, with the strong double-digit monthly gain, cryptocurrency has broken a long-term downtrend channel, confirming a bullish escape. A similar pattern observed in October 2015 paved the way for a bull market lasting two and a half years.
Monthly chart
As noted above (left), BTC exceeded the record of US $ 1,163 in November 2013 and fell into a bear market in February 2014 (price via Bitstamp).
In the following months, the cryptocurrency put in place a declining channel – the highest bearish lows and the lowest lows – which was crossed in October 2015. This breakout was followed by a rebound. to $ 20,000 in December 2017.
Thus, the latest Bitcoin channel escape could be seen as a confirmation of the bearish long-term bearish trend shift signaled for the first time by the convincing Bitcoin pbad of over $ 4,236 on April 2.
The likelihood of BTC receiving significant follow-up in the coming months is high as cryptocurrency will suffer a halved mining reward in May 2020. The process, which was aimed at halving inflation by halving The reward for operating the Bitcoin Block Chain, is repeated every four years and tends to put a strong bid in price.
The previous bull market in Bitcoin notably resulted in a break in the downtrend channel with almost a year of difference in the halving of the gain in July 2016.
In the future, with the monthly chart showing a historically bullish price structure, BTC is expected to record gains during a seasonally-mixed month of May.
- Bitcoin posted gains in May out of five of the last eight years.
- The positive benefit is that the losses recorded in May were generally significantly lower than the gains.
BTC's May probabilities of earnings, however, would fall sharply if the price were accepted below the crucial 30-day MA, which currently stands at $ 5,142.
Daily chart
On the daily chart, BTC is currently moving around the 30-day MA, which canceled withdrawals in March and served as a base throughout the rally from $ 3,300 observed in February. As a result, a strong rebound from this average could lead to pressure to buy, leading to a rebound of $ 6,000.
A more pronounced 50-day AM drop at $ 4675 could be seen if prices were accepted below the 30-day MA, thus validating the short-term bearish case presented by the bearish divergence of the relative strength index at 14 days.
Disclosure: The author does not hold any cryptocurrency badets at the time of writing.
Graphic Featured Image via Shutterstock; technical sheets by Trading view
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