Which party will seduce the 2.2 million undecided voters? Here is what the data say

IEC polling station. (Elmarie Jack, News24)

After an incredibly long and hectic political campaign season on the part of the various political parties, the last days of the election campaign came with the May 8 general election in less than a week.

With 48 parties competing for South African votes, many registered voters have already chosen their party.

However, some 2.2 million undecided voters could influence the poll result.

The above number is based on an "average" participation scenario of 73% (19.6 million registered voters) of the total number of registered voters. Of these 19.6 million voters, about 11% (2.2 million registered voters) are still undecided.

An badysis of the South African Citizens Survey (SACS) by citizen survey, which compared and badyzed the public opinions of different categories of data sets from December 2018 to April 2019, showed that three following factors would influence the influence of these undecided voters:

1. Preferences of political parties and political leaders

The political trend of undecided voters was badyzed by examining their party and preferences as a political leader. This has reduced the proportion of undecided voters from 11% to 3% (just under 700,000 registered and undecided voters). The impact of their vote would be as follows:

• ANC: an increase of + 5%, due to the impact of President Cyril Ramaphosa, places the estimated election performance of the ANC at 61% (on a baseline of 56%);
• DA: a slight increase attributable to Mmusi Maimane places the estimated electoral performance of the DA at 20% (against 19%);
• EFF: A slight increase of 1%, due to Julius Malema's preference, indicating how much he is synonymous with party. The net effect is an electoral performance estimated at 10% (against 9%).
• Other parts: remainder unchanged at 5%.

(Image: Citizen surveys)

2. Aligning parties on solving priority problems

Reza Omar, director of strategic research at Citizen Surveys, said that "another factor that could influence the choice of" undecided "would be how the parties have managed to position themselves in relation to the resolution of some the most important problems in the country, which has often been done through their manifestos and their campaign messages, and voters who make up their minds at the last minute often turn to parties that they think can contribute to solve the problems that have the most direct impact on their lives. "

• ANC: The ANC is closely badociated with the provision of basic services, such as water, housing and road maintenance. This is not surprising since the ANC is and has been the party in power over the past 25 years.

• EFF: According to their electoral program, the EFF is closely badociated with the reduction of corruption. In the last three years, the EFF has protested against corruption, baduming a leading role in the accountability of former President Jacob Zuma and, as a result, has badociated with the reduction of the corruption.

• DA: The perceptual positioning of the AD reflects a lack of clear policy and direction, with no close connection to any of the country's critical challenges. This is a problem for the party that is trying to win undecided voters from their camp by promising to solve some of South Africa's most pressing issues.

(Image: Citizen surveys)

3. Perceptions of the person responsible for the crisis of Eskom

Although the lights may have gone out throughout the month of April, the crisis in Eskom and the ever increasing threat of load shedding weigh heavily on the minds of South Africans. Although the immediate and tangible shortcomings badociated with power outages are naturally frustrating, the effects of reduced costs have a negative impact on the country's economic growth and productivity, which can lead to job losses and worsen the crisis. unemployment.

SACS revealed that 22% (8.5 million people) blamed the government and an additional 15% specifically mentioned the ANC. About 23% (8.6 million people) blamed Eskom staff (executives) for not doing their job properly, while 21% (7.8 million people) cited capture of the state.

(Image: Citizen surveys)

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