FAA says commercial UAV market could triple by 2023

The Federal Aviation Administration has published its forecasts for the next two decades (via NextGov), which predicts what will happen in the world of aviation by 2039. It should be noted in particular that the market for commercial drones is growing faster than expected and could triple by 2023, while the market for non-commercial drones seems to be slowing down.

The report covers an overview of the aviation field, including domestic and international domestic markets for air transport, cargo air traffic, space traffic and drones. He indicates that unmanned aircraft systems "have enjoyed healthy growth in the United States and around the world" over the last five years, and notes that this growth has been problematic because it encompbades everything, from amateur pilots to professional drill rigs sharing the same airspace with their larger, crewed counterparts.

With respect to drone models (mostly non-commercial aircraft), the agency says that as of December 31, "more than 900,000 owners have registered" with the FAA since it was demanded online registration of drones in 2015, the administration estimating that there are about 1.25 million drones in operation (it is not necessary to register a particular model of drone ). It also predicts that in the next five years, the market will slow as prices stabilize.

The report also looks at trends in what it describes as non-model drones (commercially-oriented devices) – on which each device must be registered. For this category, "the pace of monthly listings, nearly 15,000, is nearly three times faster than the rate at which non-model aircraft owners registered their aircraft at the same time last year." . The administration said that at the end of 2018, more than 27,000 unmanned drones were registered.

While the UAV model market seems to be slowing down, the commercial aircraft market is accelerating and the FAA expects this growth to continue. The registration rate will exceed last year's figures by 44% and it is expected that the market will have tripled by 2023, with approximately 823,000 drones flying at that time. The report notes that the number of commercial drones flying later this year (or early next year) will exceed the administration's estimates for 2022 compared to last year's report.

With this growth will come new uses. Companies like Amazon, Google, Walmart and even 7-Eleven have envisioned or experimented with drone deliveries, while a Baltimore hospital had used a drone to deliver an organ to a patient last month. The report notes that as drones "become more efficient and operationally secure, battery life increases and integration continues, new business models will begin to develop". , such as new delivery or medical services, or for operations such as search and rescue.