A gauge of confidence suggests that the US hiring could slow down later in the year

WASHINGTON (AP) – A random survey of 2,000 Americans has surprisingly predicted the health of the labor market over time.

For now, the jobs report that the government will release Friday will show a strong job gain for March. But this suggests that hiring could slow down later this year.

The survey, an indicator of consumer confidence widely followed and produced by the Conference Board, a business research group, is not limited to asking respondents about the state of the economy. He also asks if they think jobs in their area are "many" or "hard to get".

Collective responses to these questions may foreshadow the evolution of employment growth and the unemployment rate over time. When more people say that many jobs and fewer say that they are hard to get, recruitment generally increases and the unemployment rate decreases. Salaries are also more likely to increase.

"This is a good predictor of the changing labor market," said Joe Song, senior US economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

In July 2007, the percentage of Americans who reported a lot of jobs was higher than those who said they were hard to get by 11 points, indicating a good job market. The unemployment rate was down 4.7% this month.

But the gap between the proportion of respondents saying there were a lot of jobs and the number of respondents saying it was hard to find a job then gradually narrowed until it became barely positive in December of this year, when the recession officially began. The unemployment rate remained at 4.7% or less for four months before climbing to 5% in December and continued to rise as the recession worsened.

The measure taken by the Conference Board shifted into negative territory in 2008 and 2009, with many more Americans having said that jobs were hard to find than many. It peaked at minus 46.1 in November 2009, a month after unemployment peaked at 10%, the highest rate in 26 years.

Similar declines in Conference Board data preceded previous recessions.

"This is strongly correlated with unemployment," said Gad Levanon, chief economist at the Conference Board. "They have very similar turning points."

The measure now indicates a strong labor market, but one that could weaken a bit. In March, many more Americans said they thought jobs were more numerous than hard to get, but the gap between the two has narrowed significantly since the recession. The decline could still be a snap rather than evidence of a weakening labor market, Levanon warned.

"I would wait a month or two to determine if it's a turning point," he added. "If it continues to decline, it would be a very worrying signal."

The economy at large itself sends contradictory signals. Most indicators suggest slower growth this year compared to 2018. This would mean that hiring could also weaken relative to the steady pace of last year.

In February, employers created 20,000 jobs, the lowest number in almost a year and a half, although this is likely due to extreme weather and other temporary factors. Another employment report on Friday, however, would have fueled concerns about slowing growth.

Consumers have been cautious so far this year. Retail sales fell in February and a broader measure of consumer spending fell in January, which could reflect a decreasing effect of Trump 's tax cuts. Companies have also reduced their spending on industrial machinery and other equipment, as well as in factories and other buildings.

And in Europe and Asia, weaker economies have reduced demand for US exports. According to a private survey, Europe is on the verge of recession, with a contraction of its plants in March at the fastest pace of the last six years.

The trade war between the United States and China has weighed on the Chinese economy, which has affected Southeast Asian countries that are shipping electronic components and other products badembled into consumer products in factories. Chinese.

Economists now predict that the US economy will grow by about 2% to 2.5% this year, up from 2.9% last year. Still, most economists expect a return to hiring of about 170,000 additional jobs in March, according to the FactSet data provider. The unemployment rate is expected to remain close to 3.8%, its lowest level in half a century.

Some positive signs for the economy have emerged in recent weeks: sales of new and existing homes increased in February, after decreasing last year. More and more Americans are applying for mortgages now that rates have gone down.

And part of the low spending at the beginning of the year is likely due to delays in granting tax refunds due to the closure of the government. Repayments have largely caught up with their pace in previous years in March, Bank of America economists Merrill Lynch said, suggesting that spending could also.

Low unemployment and regular recruitment have also increased American wages. Average wages rose 3.4% in February from the previous year, the fastest pace since the recession.

If wage growth continues to accelerate, it should fuel more spending and boost the economy in the coming months.