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It's a moving week in aviation. The long-awaited announcement by Airbus to stop production of the A380, which was made on Valentine's Day in the week following the 50th anniversary of the first flight of the 747, could not be more moving.
It seems that big planes are going out of fashion. Even after 50 years, the Boeing 747 program has a long way to go. In comparison, the much younger A380 has never had a chance to prove its value.
Emirates Airbus A380Emirates
The A380 program was a long shot from the beginning. This map was designed on the basis of a forecast of the direction of the aviation market, which proved to be largely accurate, namely that there would be many more pbadengers and that they would make long routes between the world's largest hubs. Why has the A380 not been as successful as the 747?
Lufthansa CEO Carsten Sphor said today (with a compliment on the back of his hand) that the A380 is a remarkable aircraft with adverse economic conditions.
"The Airbus A380 is a fascinating and remarkable aircraft in many ways. A technical innovation and a European masterpiece, "said Sphor, former pilot, in a statement Twitter. "However, it has been shown that a profitable use of the A380 is only possible on extremely popular links. We are delighted to continue using the Airbus A380. Our customers and crews love the plane. "
Lufthansa is also delighted to still fly the 747-8.
The A380 loses, the A330 and the A350 win
Although Emirates decided to reduce its orders for the A380, it ended up marking the end of the program, but the company was gracious in its disappointment by signing an order for 40 A330-900s and 30 A350s. 900 as part of a transaction valued at $ 21.4 billion at list prices. These will be delivered from 2021 for the A330s and 2024 for the A350s. Emirates has also agreed to take delivery of an additional 14 A380s by 2021, which will help Airbus reduce its operations. With these last 14 aircraft, Emirates has ordered 123 A380 aircraft and remains the most ardent supporter of this aircraft.
"We are disappointed to have to give up our order and regret that the program can not be maintained, but we recognize that this is the reality," said Sheikh Ahmed bin Said Al Maktoum, chairman and CEO of the company. 39; Emirates Airline. and group. "For us, the A380 is a wonderful aircraft, appreciated by our customers and our crew. … The A380 will remain a pillar of our fleet until the 2030s ".
Out of time
Airbus CEO Tom Enders has expressed regret over A380 schedule saying, & nbsp; "There has been speculation that we were 10 years too early; I think it's clear that we were 10 years late. "& Nbsp;
But it was almost too late for four decades, or maybe three decades too soon. The demand for an aircraft of this size was insufficient at the time of the A380's deployment in 2005, as proved by its inability to attract large orders during its brief span of time. life. The 747 lasted five decades and still retains a sizable share of the very large aircraft market with more than 1,500 units built since 1969, over 500 in flight and more orders counted when you count the cargo version (and).
The Airbus A380 registered 313 units sold in January of this year and delivered 234 units. Worse, devices that are out of service have not found any after-sales request and have been & nbsp;scrapped for spare parts.
The end of the jumbo era & nbsp;
The Airbus A380 and the Boeing 747 share a common disadvantage: their size. Smaller aircraft are more attractive to airlines for their operational efficiency.
But the 747 remains leaner than the A380 and offers more flexible operations with more airports in the world designed to support the plane. The 747 was designed to survive early in its usefulness for pbadenger services. It was always imagined as cargo and has enough space to carry goods in the cargo hold, even on the pbadenger version.
For airlines, this is an important factor. When the number of pbadengers is down on a route, the freight can help make up the difference. The A380 has been designed to carry more pbadengers, but it lacks this cargo capacity, with most of the available space being occupied by pbadenger baggage.
Airbus had presented the A380 as an ideal sized aircraft for the future.
"With more seats than any other aircraft, the A380 offers overcrowding solutions, requiring fewer trips to carry 60% more pbadengers, making it the ideal solution for airport congestion, air traffic jams and more. optimization of fleet plans and traffic growth, "Airbus States on its A380 product page.
There may still be something to this, with IATA protruding that the number of pbadengers will reach 8.2 billion in 2037. Some routes may become too crowded. Air traffic control may not be able to keep pace with the high frequencies and the large number of small aircraft in flight. The jumbo jet could be the appropriate size solution, but the A380 will not be there.
Although the utilities of the Boeing 747-8 for cargo transport operations and the VVIP jet service can maintain production long enough for aviation to understand the impact of this future. tightening of pbadenger traffic. It may be easier for Boeing to speed up the return of 747-8 pbadenger service at a later date.
But even as the jumbo era comes to an end, the new Boeing 777X & nbsp;promises& nbsp; and could fill a & nbsp;lack of capacity. Airbus has to deal with its own aircraft – the A330neo and the A350 – and can also claim success in the large aircraft market with its A320 family. But Boeing's legacy of making aircraft at the perfect size for the industry – for decades – remains intact.
Suppliers are thirsty for a new aircraft
Ambitious aircraft programs, such as the A380, are not just risks for cell builders. They also pose risks for parts and component suppliers, who absorb a large part of the costs of research and development and offer favorable conditions on the promise of a place on the much coveted list of SFE (equipment supplied by the provider). These manufacturers may still have spare parts business from the A380 airlines, but the number of units has never been so high and the prospect of spare parts is now very limited.
The increasingly restricted list of suppliers in the industry was thirsty for something new that could spur innovation and ensure the stability of production before the announcement of the shutdown of the production of the A380. They will only be hungry now.
"The new SFE aircraft is very important for a lot of companies because it's a daily bread for us." Ben Bettel of Counterpoint, an badyst of the aeronautics construction sector, said at a conference on innovation in the field of interior decoration in Hamburg last December. "It's a stable part of any business business to have a steady flow: a constant monthly output.If OEMs increase, or if they decline, it's over a period of five to six months. If you're in the making, it's easier to plan what you're doing on the ups and downs, it's a good deal every day, but if there are no new programs, SFE will take a back seat. for a lot of players, business prospects will be a bit frustrated. "
Boeing could decide to take advantage of this hunger now, and take a chance on the so-called 797 NMA (new medium-sized aircraft). For its part, Airbus has the courage to take risks and no new model of aircraft on the drawing board.
If there ever was a good time for Boeing to push suppliers further, this moment could be now.
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It's a moving week in aviation. The long-awaited announcement by Airbus to stop production of the A380, which was made on Valentine's Day in the week following the 50th anniversary of the first flight of the 747, could not be more moving.
It seems that big planes are going out of fashion. Even after 50 years, the Boeing 747 program has a long way to go. In comparison, the much younger A380 has never had a chance to prove its value.
Emirates Airbus A380Emirates
The A380 program was a long shot from the beginning. It was designed on the basis of a prediction of the orientation of the aviation market, which was largely correct: there would be many more pbadengers in flight and long links between the largest plates rotating world. Why has the A380 not been as successful as the 747?
Lufthansa CEO Carsten Sphor said today (with a compliment on the back of his hand) that the A380 is a remarkable aircraft with adverse economic conditions.
"The Airbus A380 is a fascinating and remarkable aircraft in many ways. A technical innovation and a European masterpiece, "said Sphor, former pilot, in a statement Twitter. "However, it has been shown that a profitable use of the A380 is only possible on extremely popular links. We are delighted to continue using the Airbus A380. Our customers and crews love the plane. "
Lufthansa is also delighted to fly again with the 747-8.
The A380 loses, the A330 and the A350 win
Although Emirates' decision to reduce A380 orders finally marked the end of the program, the company was disappointed by its disappointment, signing an order for 40 A330-900s and 30 A350-900s in a contract. worth US $ 21.4. billion at the list price. These will be delivered from 2021 for the A330s and 2024 for the A350s. Emirates has also agreed to take delivery of an additional 14 A380s by 2021, which will help Airbus reduce its operations. With these last 14 aircraft, Emirates has ordered 123 A380 aircraft and remains the most ardent supporter of this aircraft.
"We are disappointed to have to give up our order and regret that the program can not be maintained, but we recognize that this is the reality," said Sheikh Ahmed bin Said Al Maktoum, chairman and CEO of the company. 39; Emirates Airline. and group. "For us, the A380 is a wonderful aircraft, appreciated by our customers and our crew. … The A380 will remain a pillar of our fleet until the 2030s ".
Out of time
Airbus CEO Tom Enders expressed regret over the A380 schedule, saying: "There has been speculation that we were 10 years too early; I think it's clear that we were 10 years late. "
But it was almost too late for four decades, or maybe three decades too soon. The demand for an aircraft of this size was insufficient at the time of the A380's deployment in 2005, as proved by its inability to attract large orders during its brief span of time. life. The 747 lasted five decades and retains a significant share of the very large aircraft market with more than 1,500 units built since 1969, over 500 still in flight and new orders left on the books when you count the cargo version (and you should) .
The Airbus A380 recorded 233 units sold in January of this year and 234 units. Worse still, devices that are out of service have not found any after-sales request and have been scrapped.
The end of the jumbo era
The Airbus A380 and the Boeing 747 share a common disadvantage: their size. Smaller aircraft are more attractive to airlines for their operational efficiency.
But the 747 is still slimmer than the A380 and offers more flexible operations with more airports around the world designed to support the aircraft. The 747 was designed to survive early in its usefulness for pbadenger services. It has always been imagined as a cargo ship and has enough space to carry goods in the cargo hold, even on the pbadenger version.
For airlines, this is an important factor. When the number of pbadengers is down on a route, the freight can help make up the difference. The A380 has been designed to carry more pbadengers, but it lacks this cargo capacity, with most of the available space being occupied by pbadenger baggage.
Airbus had presented the A380 as an ideal sized aircraft for the future.
"With more seats than any other aircraft, the A380 offers overcrowding solutions, requiring fewer trips to carry 60% more pbadengers, making it the ideal solution for airport congestion." , optimizing fleet plans and increasing traffic, "says Airbus in its A380 product page.
IATA estimates that the number of pbadengers will reach 8.2 billion by 2037. It is possible that some routes become too crowded. Air traffic control may not be able to keep pace with the high frequencies and the large number of small aircraft in flight. The jumbo jet could be the appropriate size solution, but the A380 will not be there.
Although the utilities of the Boeing 747-8 for cargo transport operations and the VVIP jet service can maintain production long enough for aviation to understand the impact of this future. tightening of pbadenger traffic. It may be easier for Boeing to speed up the return of 747-8 pbadenger service at a later date.
Even though the jumbo era is over, the new Boeing 777X looks promising and could fill a lack of capacity. Airbus has to deal with its own aircraft – the A330neo and the A350 – and can also claim success in the large aircraft market with its A320 family. But Boeing's legacy of making aircraft at the perfect size for the industry – for decades – remains intact.
Suppliers are thirsty for a new aircraft
Ambitious aircraft programs, such as the A380, are not just risks for cell builders. They also pose risks for parts and component suppliers, who absorb a large part of the costs of research and development and offer favorable conditions on the promise of a place on the much coveted list of SFE (equipment supplied by the provider). These manufacturers may still have spare parts business from the A380 airlines, but the number of units has never been so high and the prospect of spare parts is now very limited.
The increasingly restricted list of suppliers in the industry was thirsty for something new that could spur innovation and ensure the stability of production before the announcement of the shutdown of the production of the A380. They will only be hungry now.
"The new SFE aircraft are very important to many companies as they represent a major badet to our company," said Ben Bettel's Counterpoint badyst, at a conference on interior innovation. in Hamburg last December. "It's a stable part of any business's business to actually have a steady stream – a constant monthly output.If OEMs increase – or if they go down – it's about a period of five to six months.If you're in the manufacturing sector, it's easier to plan what you're doing on the ups and downs.It's a good deal everyday. There are no new programs, SFE will take a back seat for many players .. the prospect for business is going to be a bit frustrated. "
Boeing could decide to take advantage of this hunger now and try his luck with the so-called 797 NMA (new medium-sized aircraft). For its part, Airbus has the courage to take risks and no new model of aircraft on the drawing board.
If Boeing had the right time to push its suppliers further, it might be right now.
