A "revenue recession" has arrived, says Morgan Stanley

The long awaited earnings recession has finally arrived, but investors remain too optimistic and should anticipate more disappointment as the year approaches, according to Morgan Stanley.

_{Source: John Butters, FactSet}

Wilson, who had forecast a recession of revenue for the first time in 2018, now sees the S & P 500's EPS for 2019 at $ 164, below the consensus estimate of $ 170.

The strategist added that when investors have anticipated a surge in earnings growth over the last four quarters, the figures for the next four quarters tend to fall, but the quarter of growth tends to fall further. In fact, if current estimates moved in line with history, investors could see a 3.5% drop in profits over a full year, he wrote.

About 66% of the S & P 500 index has announced its fourth quarter results 2018 so far. While nearly 70% exceeded badysts' expectations in terms of net income, only 60% were surprised by the increase in turnover. Looking ahead, Refinitiv is paired with other market data researchers, FactSet and S & P, last week to predict a decline in S & P 500 earnings in the near future. first quarter of 2019.

FactSet predicted a first quarter profit loss of 2.1% as of Monday morning.