A year later, the hard times are announcing for the Athiopian Abiy Ahmed

In his first speech as Ethiopian Prime Minister last April, Abiy Ahmed called for an end to the repressive and exclusionary governance that plunged the country into turmoil.

It was a promise on which he would have been honored in a spectacular way, earning him both international fame and national popularity so great that his most ardent supporters claim he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize.

"Before the arrival of Abiy, we feared that Ethiopia would sink into civil war," said Hbaden Hussein, senior official of the Oromo Democratic Front, one many banned groups welcomed back from exile.

However, the first year of the new prime minister's mandate was also marked by a resurgence of ethnic violence that forced 1.8 million people to leave their homes.

While Mr. Abiy re-made the public face of the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), diplomats and politicians said that politics remained virtually unchanged at the local level.

"Many people, especially at the local level, are wondering where the change is." said Merera Gudina, a senior official of the political opposition. "The depth and pace of change … people really doubt."

As he enters his second year in power, Abiy faces a new challenge: to keep his promise to make the 2020 elections free and fair despite rising political violence.

Abiy, who was sworn in on April 2, 2018, took office after the resignation of his predecessor, Hailemariam Desalegn, after more than two years of anti-government protests and growing discord within the EPRDF.

Negotiate with the opposition

Former Minister of Science, Abiy is from the Oromo people, the largest ethnic group in Ethiopia. He rose through the ranks in the army and intelligence services to reach the rank of lieutenant colonel.

The 42-year-old has convinced Ethiopians by his quick and dramatic reforms, often accompanied by a personal touch.

He publicly met with newly released political prisoners and repeatedly met with the old enemy of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in order to negotiate a July 2018 agreement re-establishing relations after a bloody war on 1998- 2000.

"For the first time in the history of the country, he is negotiating with the opposition," said Merera, who was imprisoned under Hailemariam, and then released on the eve of his resignation.

Merera however worries about whether the four parties that make up the EPRDF – and in particular the old guard of the Tigrayan minority that dominated the coalition until the rise of Abiy – the really support.

"We do not know how much the EPRDF is engaged," he said.

At the local level, politics has changed little.

"The party in power is the party in power, the cadres are the same, the service delivery is the same," said Merera.

Those who met the Prime Minister are worried about his tendency to show his achievements while revealing little about his plans to tackle the country's challenges.

& # 39; One man show & # 39;

Last October, Abiy had made the headlines by appointing a cabinet where half of the ministers were women. But critics say that he took power in his hands and marginalized ministries.

"It's a one-man show … It's not a functional government," said a foreign diplomat to AFP, adding that among the embbadies, "some eyebrows are getting up now ".

Shortly after the entry into office of Mr. Abiy, a long-standing conflict over land in the Guji and Gedeo areas of southern Ethiopia resulted in clashes ethnic groups that have forced nearly a million people to leave their homes.

This violence continued during the first year of Abiy.

Last September, at least 58 people, mostly from ethnic minority groups, were killed in the suburbs of the capital Addis Ababa. Humanitarian groups said in December that ethnic violence in western Ethiopia had displaced 250,000 people.

Analysts blamed the rise of violence for loosening the tight control that the ERPRDF once exercised over the regional security forces and administration.

Abiy touted his maneuvers to improve media freedom – much like Hailemariam, who released several well-known jailed reporters – but instability threatens such progress.

Elias Kifle, who runs the online newspaper Mereja, believes the Oromo police have punished the February crowd by beating two of its journalists in the town of Legetafo.

"I considered that it was not an attack against the media, but also against the reform," he said, adding that he did not did not blame the Prime Minister for the badault.

In March, as a sign of apparent precariousness in the country, officials postponed the national census, considered a precursor of the vote next year.

"Cursed if you do, damn if you do not," said Hbaden about the elections. "With the level of polarization that currently exists, I'm not sure that an election would be beneficial for Ethiopia and the Ethiopians."