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Overdose deaths caused by opioid abuse and addiction will continue to increase, as current interventions to limit the abuse of prescription drugs are not enough to cure the situation. This is what emerges from a study published in the JAMA Network Open by a research team composed of several institutes. The study concludes that at this rate, the worst opioid crisis in the history of the United States could still worsen over time.
Researchers used a dynamic systems model to project trends in overdose deaths from 2016 to 2025 and found that even in the strictest scenarios, an overdose would continue to increase.
The current opioid epidemic in the county could be responsible for 700,000 overdose deaths between 2016 and 2025. The study shows that the changing nature of the epidemic makes current solutions ineffective in the long run.
"Preventing people from misusing prescription opioids is important and may help prevent some overdose deaths in the long run, but our study shows that the effect would be to reduce the number of overdose deaths in a population. near future, "said Qiushi Chen, badistant professor at Penn State and the main author of the paper. "The majority of overdose deaths are now due to illicit opioids, such as heroin and fentanyl, instead of prescribed opioids, and the changing nature of the epidemic has reduced the potential impact of programs targeting prescribed opioids. "
Chen has worked with colleagues at Mbadachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, and Boston University Medical School. "The opioid crisis has been a national public health emergency for over a year and is getting worse," said Jagpreet Chhatwal, badistant professor at Harvard Medical School and lead author of the journal. "We sought to understand how reducing the incidence of prescription opioid abuse, through interventions limiting the supply of opioid prescriptions, would affect the outcome of deaths. by overdose over the next decade. "
Chen and the team developed a mathematical model that would allow them to simulate the opioid crisis from 2002 to 2025. The researchers used data available from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and in the United States. National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). .
The researchers then calibrated the model to match the trends in overdose deaths due to specific types of opioid use observed from 2002 to 2015. The model was then used to project the likely outcomes of the epidemic, on the basis of the continuing trend, until 2025.
If the status quo is maintained, the annual number of overdose deaths from opioids will increase from 33,100 in 2015 to 81,700 by 2025. This is an increase of 147%. Eighty percent of these overdose deaths will result from the use of illicit opioids such as heroin or fentanyl. Take a look at San Jose's best rehab programs.
The researchers also found that interventions to reduce prescription opioid abuse reduced the number of overdose deaths by 3-5% in all scenarios tested. Even in a hypothetical situation with an extreme modeling scenario, in which there would be no new cases of prescription opioid abuse after 2015, the researchers found that deaths in 2025 would still be higher than 2015.
"More and more people are using illicit opioids. In the past, people could start using non-drug badgesics, which could then lead to an illicit use of opioids, but the data suggests that more and more people are now starting to use illicit opioids for recreational purposes, "Chen said. "Prescription opioids are not necessarily the gateway that people must use to get to illicit opioids."
The NSDUH indicates that 30% of people who developed an opioid use disorder were not taking prescription medications. These people started taking heroin or fentanyl. If this trend continues, by 2025, nearly half of people with an opioid use disorder will have started using it with illicit drugs.
"This study demonstrates that prescription opioid-based initiatives are not enough to counter the opioid overdose death pattern in the short and medium term," said the co-op opioid provider. author Marc LaRochelle, badistant professor at the Grayken Center for Addiction at Boston Medical. Center. "We need policy, public health and health care delivery to amplify harm reduction efforts and access to evidence-based treatment."
If a family member is struggling with opioid addiction, it is important to ask for help. A combination of medical detoxification and behavioral therapy can go a long way in the fight against drug addiction. But as each addict is badigned differently, a comprehensive program tailored to his or her specific needs is needed. Look for an addiction treatment center nearby and find out how addiction programs work.
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