According to one study, the HPV vaccine could virtually eliminate cervical cancer in rich countries by 30 years from now

PARIS – The rapid rise of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine could virtually eliminate cervical cancer in a handful of rich countries in three decades, and in most other countries by the end of May. century, researchers said Wednesday.

Without screening and vaccination against HPV, more than 44 million women will probably be diagnosed with the disease over the next 50 years, they reported in The Lancet Oncology, a medical journal.

Two-thirds of these cases – and about 15 million deaths – would occur in low- and middle-income countries.

On the other hand, the rapid deployment of screening and vaccination from 2020 could prevent more than 13 million cervical cancers by mid-century and reduce the number of cases to less than 4 per 100,000 women. revealed the study.

"This is a potential threshold for considering cervical cancer as a major public health problem," the authors said in a statement.

Earlier this month, the World Health Organization reported 570,000 new cases worldwide in 2018, making it the fourth-highest cancer in women after bad, colon and cancer cancers. lung.

The disease kills more than 300,000 women each year, mostly in low-income countries.

"Despite the enormity of the problem, our findings suggest that global elimination is within reach," said lead author Karen Canfell, a professor at the Cancer Council New South Wales in Sydney.

Achieving this goal, however, depends on "high coverage of HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening," she added.

Sexually transmitted, HPV is extremely common and includes more than 100 types of viruses, at least 14 of which cause cancer.

Viruses have also been linked to cancers of the anus, vulva, bad and penis.

Cervical cancer takes 15 to 20 years to develop in women with normal immune systems. If the immune system is weak or compromised – for example by HIV infection – the cancer can grow much faster.

Clinical trials have shown that HPV vaccines are safe and effective against both HPV strains – types 16 and 18 – responsible for 70% of cervical cancer cases.

According to the study's predictions, 80% of girls aged 12 to 15 should be vaccinated by 2020 and at least 70% of women screen twice in their lifetime.

This would raise the prevalence of the disease to below 4/100 000 in countries such as the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and France by 2059, and in income countries. intermediate such as Brazil and China by 2069, the authors calculate.