Afghan Refugees in Iran: Trumps of Yesterday, Today's Troubles

Conflicts in one country rarely persist in one country. In fact, in the 21st century, they have almost always touched a country's neighbors. This can happen in a multitude of forms, from refugee flows to terrorism, to the national political economy of a given country. This is particularly noticeable when one examines the effects of the conflict that has lasted for several decades in Afghanistan on its neighbor, Iran. According to Iranian officials, the conflict in Afghanistan would have had an extremely negative impact on the internal functioning of Iran. Specifically, Iranian officials have claimed that Afghan refugees living in Iran have an extremely negative impact on the country's political economy. This is apparently manifested by the fact that Afghan refugees take jobs from Iranian citizens. This is true, because Afghan refugees are doing a lot of hard work at lower prices than Iranian citizens and usually send the vast majority of their income back to Afghanistan in the form of remittances. The total amount of these remittances is approximately three to four billion euros. At present, while Iran is going through an internal economic crisis, the country's government has started using the country's some 2.5 million Afghan refugees as currency. This is particularly the case of the economic sanctions imposed on Iran by the United States after the withdrawal of the Iranian nuclear deal by the latter country in the spring of 2018. In an interview with the United States, the United States announced the Iranian IRNA news agency, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Sayed Abbas Araghchi Iran would ask Afghan refugees to return to their country of citizenship if economic sanctions were strengthened by the United States.

If the threats by the deputy foreign minister materialize, it is highly unlikely that Afghan refugees will return to Afghanistan, which is still in a state of conflict that has deteriorated in recent months. Instead, the overwhelming majority of the 2.5 million people would probably seek refuge in another country, probably somewhere in Europe. This is not just a theory, but has already been documented in the flow of Afghan refugees who have left Iran, whether voluntarily or by force.

The notion of refugees having an impact on the domestic policy of a country is undoubtedly more visible in Europe than on any other continent, as shown by the historic vote that led the United Kingdom to leave the Union. in 2016 and the rise of far-right power in places ranging from France to Austria. In this respect, European countries would not take lightly the potential of new refugee flows of up to hundreds of thousands. Therefore, Iran is trying to use refugees as political tools in the framework of a wider geopolitical game between European countries, Iran and the United States. Specifically, Iran is trying to take advantage of the threat of refugee flows to Europe to convince Europe to put more pressure on the United States to prevent even tougher sanctions on the Iranian economy , which only aggravate the macro-economic context the country of the Middle East. This threat to the European countries was even clearer in a letter from Iranian President Hbadan Rouhani to the other parties to the agreement with Iran, including France, Germany and the European Union. . Specifically, he warned the parties to the agreement with Iran that any failure to maintain the agreement in place and to prevent the imposition of additional sanctions on Iran would entail new flows of refugees to Europe would aggravate the current crisis and affect the pollen atmosphere in Western Europe. In short, Iran is trying to capture Europe's attention and force the continent to oppose the United States imposing more sanctions on Iran and using the livelihoods of 2.5 million Afghan refugees to do so. The message that Iran sends could not be clearer: European countries must oppose the United States, which imposes sanctions on the Iranian economy. If not, Iran will force Afghan refugees who have been in the country for decades to leave the country, and many of them will undoubtedly try to travel to Europe.

The use of Afghan refugees as political tools is by no means a new methodology used by the Iranian government. In fact, the Iranian regime has a long history of such activities. For example, this was materialized by military means such as when the Iranian Revolutionary Guards created the division of the Afghan Shiites during the Iran-Iraq war in 1980, called the Abouzar Brigade. They were mobilized and encouraged to fight the Sunni Iranian army to support the Iranian army. The "Ayatollah" regime which is the main promoter of Shiite sectarianism in the Islamic world. According to the Iranian press, the Abuja Brigade was reportedly the victim of nearly 3,000 casualties during the Iran-Iraq war, the majority of whom were Afghan Shiite Afghans who had fled to Iran because of oppressive rule and conflict. in Afghanistan. This is also the case in the ongoing conflict in Syria, which is crucial for Iran's interests in the Middle East because of its strategic location and its land border with Israel. Iran has mobilized and sent Afghan Shiites, mostly Afghan refugees living in Iran, to fight for Iran-backed militias in Syria. Iran has notably engaged in a public relations campaign to gain support from Shiite Afghans for such actions by claiming that fighters were protecting access routes to sacred Shiite shrines across Syria . Although the Iranian media claim that the Afghan Shiite mobilization was made up of volunteer fighters whose sole purpose was to protect the Sayyida Zainab mosque in the suburbs of Damascus, it is manifestly a false badertion. Specifically, since 2013, the Fatemiyon division of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, composed mainly of Afghan Shiites, has been sent to fight the Iranian proxy in Syria to support President Bashar al-Assad, who defends his regime against what was once a prominent collapse in the hands of opposition groups, which are mainly provided and supported by Iranian rivals in the region and in the world. In addition, Afghan Shiite fighters seeking asylum in Iran have been urged to join the Iranian militia and participate in the war in Syria by promising financial rewards, the cancellation of prison sentences and Iranian citizenship.

As the Taliban begin their annual spring offensive in Afghanistan and as the political and economic situation becomes more and more uncertain in the country, more Afghans are likely to try to flee it. A significant portion of these people will probably flee to Iran. However, they will not find a political refugee but will instead be treated as political pawns by a government accused of not respecting the human rights of its own citizens, not to mention those of a neighboring country. less powerful.

The future of Afghan refugees living in Iran depends on the level of tension between the United States and Iran. Recent actions by the United States and the Iranian government have exacerbated tensions at its peak. For example, the US designation of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard as a foreign terrorist organization was reciprocally granted by the Iranian government, which recognized the US government as a supporter of terrorism and designated US forces in West Asia or the US Central Command (CENTCOM). ) as a terrorist organization. In addition, tensions have worsened after Saudi oil tankers were sabotaged by so-called Iranian actors off the United Arab Emirates. In an immediate action, the United States "warned the shipping companies that" Iran or its agents "could target shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf region and have announced the deployment of a gate and B-52 bombers in the Persian Gulf to counter Tehran's alleged threats. "In addition, the Acting Secretary of State for Defense, Patrick Shanahan, presented a military plan that predicts the possibility to send 120,000 troops to the Middle East in case an attack on US forces or an increase in the number of nuclear weapons by the Iranian regime occurs. However, the growing number of economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the preparation for a military confrontation have not resulted in a decline in the position of the Iranian government. Iranian officials have instead baderted that the US military presence in the Gulf is not a risk, but an opportunity for Iran, which is an easy target in case of military clashes.

Now, what will be the effect of these tensions on the situation of Afghan refugees living in Iran? Will the Iranian government treat refugees in a humane manner, or will they use them once they have been aging as political tools, as they have done for a long time? Once, the ideal answer will be no, because its only right to treat refugees as a humanitarian issue. In addition, they have been a major badet to the Iranian government, both economically and militarily. However, a history of discrimination against Afghan refugees and recent pronouncements by Iranian officials point to a pessimistic approach to the future of Afghan refugees in Iran after any subsequent movement on both sides.

Abdul Bari Nijrabi is President and Founder of the International Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development. He is based between Kabul and Washington, DC. Follow him on Twitter @AbdulNjrabi