American tensions: And the winner is …?

In the Middle East, tensions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America have increased. These tensions have been exacerbated by the deployment of aircraft carriers, bombers and additional troops to the Middle East from the United States.

These tensions are a consequence of the withdrawal of the United States from the euro zone. Iran's nuclear deal and the subsequent re-imposition of economic sanctions on Iran; the sanctions that, according to the experts, seriously harm the Iranian economy.

Although this policy of maximum pressure can "strangle" the Iranian economy, put pressure on the government and undermine Iran's support for its Middle East agents, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis. in Yemen, as expected, the United States and its Middle East allies may not want such a policy.

In the context of Iranian politics, President Hbadan Rouhani is one of the few moderate politicians to believe in the reforms of the Islamic Republic and forging closer ties with the West.

Indeed, extremists have used his reform and his pro-Western agenda to make it difficult for him in Iran, portraying him as a weak ruler who can surrender Iranian sovereignty to the west.

After the signature of Nuclear Deal in 2015, conservative extremists in Iran including security institutions such as Basij Militia and the leaders of the body of the Revolutionary Guard were very critical of the President and his Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, expressing their strong opposition to the agreement and describing it as "an agreement with the devil".

This policy of maximum pressure exerted by the United States is thus the game of the conservatives, who will not waste time to take advantage of the difficulties which the people is confronted because of the American sanctions and to mobilize the mbades against the president whom they qualify low.

Of course, nothing can be more exciting for the United States and its allies in the Middle East than a regime change in Iran; Although President Trump has stated publicly that this is not their goal. However, the alternative to the current Iranian regime should be a nightmare for all.

The true beneficiary of such a change will not be the United States but the extremists who have been critical of President Rouhani's pro-Western and reform agenda in recent years as they did with former reformist President Mohammad Khatami. When they finally have power with the help of US sanctions, they will only seek a clash with the United States and Israel.

It is important to note that a war between Iran and the United States will be catastrophic for both countries and their strategic interests in the Middle East, even if in the context of the balance of power military, it may take decades for Iran to recover.

As many have argued, this will also bring a devastating blow to the fight against ISIL in Iraq, as Iranian proxies help the Iraqi army fight against ISIL. are likely to abandon this fight and focus instead on support for Iran.

It is therefore clear that the general direction of things in the Middle East does not look good. The United States may need to reconsider its current policy towards Iran; both parties must realize that there can be no winner when things end up getting out of hand.

Conscious efforts must be made to put aside the ego and use diplomatic means to resolve the stalemate. Whenever possible, there should be third-party mediation as the Middle East may not survive a US-Iranian war.

Author: Ibrahim Suhuyini is an International Affairs blogger at ibrahimsuhuyini.blogspot.com