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London, United Kingdom – At the beginning of another week, which was to be the first after the UK's exit from the European Union, the Brexit outlook is still uncertain.
What is happening today?
A second round of non-binding "indicative votes" Monday aims to test support for alternatives to the divorce agreement of Prime Minister Theresa May with the EU.
The votes will take place at 8:00 GMT and the results will be around 22:00.
All eyes are on whether the vote will lead MEPs to force May to adopt a "softer Brexit", which could eventually lead to general elections.
Parliament rejected the eight alternative options put to the vote last week.
The holding of a second referendum and a customs union with the EU has received the greatest support.
On March 29, the day the country was due to leave the EU, deputies rejected May's deal with the bloc for the third time. Contrary to the two previous votes, this vote took place only on one of the two constituent elements of the agreement, the withdrawal agreement, which defines the conditions of departure and provides for a transition period of 20 months.
A non-legally binding policy statement exposing future relations between the United Kingdom and the EU has not been pbaded.
May lost the vote by 58 votes to 230 in January and 149 in March.
In a surprising move, May had told members of her own conservative party, which is bitterly divided over Brexit, that she would step down if she supported her agreement. But even this attempt to defeat the rebels who would prefer to see a "hard Brexit" proved insufficient.
The Prime Minister could submit the agreement to Parliament for a fourth time this week.
Will Parliament finally find a consensus?
A week ago, MPs voted for the government to temporarily grab the parliamentary calendar to try to break the stalemate over Brexit and give its opinion on the way forward through 39, a series of "indicative votes".
MEPs have proposed eight options for debate, but the speaker is unlikely to re-select proposals that were rejected by a large majority last week, such as leaving without agreement on 12 April.
The speaker will probably choose three or four options this time, leaving out proposals that had previously been rejected by significant margins, such as the revocation of Article 50 and departure without any agreement.
The idea of holding a public vote of confirmation on a Brexit deal received the greatest number of votes last week – which was perceived as a victory by activists of the so-called popular vote. The proposal will be debated again today.
Deputy Labor Party leader Tom Watson again called on the party to support a second referendum option.
However, a number of Labor MPs from voting ridings previously challenged the party bad and voted against the proposal, making it difficult to know where new votes could come from. An amendment calling for a second referendum could still be introduced at a later stage.
Options for a "softer Brexit", especially a customs union and the so-called Common Market 2.0, could gain the decisive support of the deputies who abstained on the last round of voting.
According to the latter, the United Kingdom would join the European Economic Area (EEA) and the European Free Trade Association while forming part of a customs union with the EU.
"What's interesting is that the Labor Party has not tabled anything on their own," said Maddy Thimont Jack, a researcher at the Institute for Government in London, adding that this could be determining for the position of Labor tonight.
"It will be very interesting to see if this time they decide to bad the Common Market 2.0.", Added Thimont Jack, pointing out that the proposal had been amended to "include a language more favorable to the workers".
Will the votes of today change the course of Brexit?
The votes are not binding.
If MEPs succeed in securing a majority for an alternative solution, they may seek to legislate for the government to request a long extension of the Brexit deadline with the EU.
A Brexit without agreement is it on the agenda?
No.
No agreement remains the default option under Article 50 and the Brexit deadline is 12 April.
If no alternative option was agreed to advocate for a longer extension with the EU, the UK could "accidentally" leave the bloc in two weeks.
The Irish border was the main point of contention for the Conservative party.
The hard-Brexiteers fear that the security protocol provided for in the withdrawal agreement – an insurance policy designed to maintain an open border on the island of Ireland – may be indefinitely linked to trade rules of the European Union by the United Kingdom.
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland says it would create a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
This border will have to be managed in the case of a non-agreement scenario. Germany and France have an appointment with the Irish Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, this week.
L & # 39; EU m said in a statement last week, he had completed his preparations for a non-agreement.
More than 170 Conservative MPs have written to May this week asking it to withdraw the UK from the EU "with or without agreement".
Why is everyone talking about a general election?
If Parliament agrees on a way forward that May can not approve, the Prime Minister may decide to call a general election. However, a general election will require the approval of at least two-thirds of the members of the British Parliament, which is not currently of interest to the Conservatives.
Meanwhile, a number of ministers are openly preparing for a leadership challenge, with the Prime Minister's position appearing more and more fragile.
If the indicative vote process leads MPs to choose a "soft Brexit" scenario, it could put pressure on the hard-Brexiters to vote in favor of May's agreement when it will bring it back a fourth time.
To do this, she will need the speaker – who has already ruled that the same agreement could not be presented to the House twice – to allow it.
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