Are there really viable "alternative arrangements" for the Irish border?

THeresa May returns to Brussels to try to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement from the European Union to make it acceptable to a majority of deputies in the House of Commons.

But what will she ask?

On Tuesday night, almost all MPs from his party and the majority of Commons voted in favor of an amendment proposed by Sir Graham Brady, Conservative Critic, claiming Irish support (the clause relating to the insurance stipulating that the whole of the United Kingdom will remain in the European Union). customs union if no free trade agreement with the EU has been concluded that avoids a hard border in Ireland) in the withdrawal agreement that needs to be replaced by " alternative arrangements "not specified.

The logic of Downing Street is that, if the EU agrees, the agreement it brings will finally lead to the Commons.

But what could these alternative arrangements be? Even if the EU was ready to reopen the withdrawal agreement, does it really exist?

The "Maloney Compromise", a proposal drafted by conservative MPs on both sides of the party, refers to a "protocol" intended to replace the point of support of a document published last month entitled " A better deal. This was written by Shanker Singham of the Institute of Economic Affairs, an opaque finance think tank.

This protocol proposes a variety of technical and procedural measures – including customs controls outside the border and a new regulatory equivalence regime between the UK and the EU – supposedly supposed to eliminate further border friction. Irish resulting from the UK leaving the EU customs union and the single market.

But how credible is it?

Katy Hayward of Queen's University in Belfast said her law enforcement and contraband prevention provisions would not be secure.

"[Its] "Self-badessment declarations" and "periodic returns" simply do not provide enough substantial data to manage the movement of goods between different customs and regulatory regimes, "she said. Computerized risk badysis without means of intervention is useless. "

Sam Lowe of the Center for European Reform agrees that the document is not credible in terms of maintaining order.

"Can you do it without physical infrastructure? May be. Can you do it without a slight increase in "badociated checks"? I do not think so. Would it still be a frontier in the minds of many peoples and would it be disruptive? I think so said.

In other words, if the Singham plan is the only alternative to Irish support that Theresa May can offer in Brussels, her renegotiation effort is likely to be brief and unsuccessful.

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