Are whales about to pump Bitcoin?

The current four-year cycle of Bitcoin will end with a meteoric rise to levels never seen before, according to an unnamed holder of more than 7,000 BTCs. In an exclusive interview with CCN, the anonymous whale Bitcoin said it would expect the price to reach $ 50,000 in at least three years, though the realization of this peak could take up to five.

So what does the whale have to say? More importantly, are people in their position able to manipulate prices as they please? The answer is a little complicated.

What the whale has to say

It is notoriously difficult to set a future price target for bitcoin, but an unnamed whale surveyed by the SCC estimates that $ 50,000 will be realized in the next three to five years. This view accords somewhat with Hacked's previous badysis of the four-year cycle.

"I think we are already seeing a return of the bull market. Otherwise, we will see it in the coming months, "he told NCC. "The key indicator is the increase in trade and over-the-counter trading. The Bitcoin consolidation above the 200-day moving average and the half-price approximation are also bullish. "

The price of Bitcoin has reached the so-called gold cross – when the 50-day moving average exceeds the 200-day moving average – last month. The technical situation continued to improve, leading some to believe that a return to $ 6,000 was imminent. At the last control, bitcoin accounted for approximately $ 5,770 and accounted for 55.8% of the global market capitalization of cryptocurrency.

The whale in question has been involved in bitcoin since its earliest days, when it was far from the general interest. He evaluated the technology underlying cryptocurrency and determined that it would be a "big prospect for society …". He accumulated 7,000 BTCs during his lifetime, which equates to about $ 40 million at current prices. This fortune would reach $ 350 million if BTC reached the goal of $ 50,000.

Do whales handle Bitcoin?

Whales play an important role in the cryptocurrency market, but "manipulation" is probably not the best way to describe their behavior. Like any other market participant, whales have a direct interest in the price of bitcoin and, as long-term holders, they would probably like to see cryptocurrency increase in the future.

In September, Hacked badessed whether whales were responsible for the disappearance of Bitcoin in 2018. In particular, we looked at a sudden correction in bitcoin prices in early September, which saved $ 1,000 in 24 hours. A whale may have precipitated the sale, but it can not be blamed on the bear market. Hacked explained why this was the case in a follow-up article in October entitled Bitcoin Whales to the rescue?

The article draws on Chainbadysis data to show that bitcoin whales are not as deadly after all. In fact, whales have been largely misunderstood.

For starters, a large majority (about two-thirds) of whales are not active traders. As noted Chainbadysis:

"They seem to have generally stabilized the market during recent price declines, instead of exacerbating price movements. This makes sense, because these commercial whales are professionals who have no particular interest in suddenly hosting the market. When they need liquidity, traders will likely use OTC trading platforms equipped to handle large transactions with minimal market disruption. "

Again, this does not mean that whales have no impact on the price of bitcoin. They certainly do it. The most recent example is the end of March: only one operator bought BTC $ 100 million over three separate cryptocurrency exchanges. BDC Group confirmed that the three scholarships were Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp.

This purchase order resulted in a 20% increase in the price of Bitcoin, one of the best monthly gains in recent memory. Read more: Bitcoin is at the dawn of a two-year milestone.

But the mysterious purchase order followed months of steady accumulation for the largest cryptocurrency. It was later confirmed that Bitcoin was entering its new four-year cycle in early 2019, as price developments continued to move away from December's trough. In other words, the market had returned well before the whale initiated the purchase.

If investors want to keep an eye on Bitcoin whales, long dormant accounts should be the starting point. Some of these dormant portfolios were activated in the last stages of 2018; at the time, one wondered whether they were net buyers or net sellers of BTC. With the price floor firmly in place, it seems like most of the activity has been long.

The cryptocurrency market has taken a major turn since the beginning of the year, but the way forward is not without major hurdles. The markets are in a dominant uptrend, but we have to wait for big painful upheavals. For long-term holders, this will not be a problem. Those who buy bitcoins at the margin or use excessive leverage will feel the pain.

Disclaimer: The author is the owner of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other crypto-currencies. He holds investment positions in coins, but does not engage in short-term or day trading.

The selected image is a courtesy of Shutterstock.