Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

The next tournament on the Florida Swing is the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge. The course will play as a par 72, measuring 7,454 yards and will be putt on the Bermuda greens. Last year, this tournament was the last full event before COVID-19 was stopped.

Define your DraftKings fantastic golf rosters here: $ 800,000 PGA Flop Tour [$200K to 1st]

STRATEGY

After a grueling test at the Concession Golf Club, those who come will not have much respite this week. The Arnold Palmer Invitational was tough last season, scoring 4 below par. Since 2016, the winning score has averaged just over 12 below par. Some traveling from Bradenton to Bay Hill include the 2018 API Champion Rory McIlroy (+900, $ 11,500), Bryson DeChambeau (+1250, $ 11,000), Hideki Matsuyama (+ 2,800, $ 9,400) and reigning champion Tyrrell Hatton (+1800, $ 10,000). Much similar to last week, the course will not be the usual 156 golfers. Since this is an invitation, the field consists of 123 players at the time of writing.

Bay Hill has been hosting the event since 1979. The late Arnold Palmer Invitational made renovations in 2009 including changes to all greens, bunkering, yardage and moving from one par 71 to one. 72. The course emphasizes off-la-tee precision over distance with several doglegs and eight water hazards that will be in play on nine holes bordering the fairways and greens. Even though the course is close to 7,500 yards, golfers routinely choose to take less than the driver to get their shots down the fairway with a thick rough Bermuda. We see this with golfers hitting fairways in regulation at a higher rate than the TOUR average and not hitting their drives that far, the average driving distance being less than the TOUR average. As a result, golfers hit long irons in these challenging greens, especially on the four par 4s measuring between 450 and 500 yards. Scoring will be tough on the par 4s this week, which means those who can take advantage of the 4 par 5s should have the edge over the field. We can’t forget how tough the past week has been around the greens, so those who also have a solid short game on Bermuda grass should be taken into account.

Golf rosters that arrive in solid form versus a good course history are something to watch out for. This week we should consider golfers who have historically played well in Florida or Bay Hill. Four of the five best Strokes golfers won: Total here has taken a win or a runner-up in the past five years. Conversely, players like Sungjae Im (+ 2,250.9700 $) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+9000, 7,500 $) played well in their first few starts, but the week before, either in Florida, or at the Honda Classic, or at a world championship golf course, which is the kind of form we should be looking at.

GOLFERS TO CONSIDER

Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2500 to win, $ 9,800 on DraftKings)

We’ve now seen back-to-back tournaments with the Englishman in solid form, averaging 5.6 tee shots on the green. Fitzpatrick mentioned that he enjoys playing courses like this, which is evident with his second place finish here in 2019 and ninth place last season. Fitzpatrick is expected to have a high roster percentage, but it should be worth it this week given how hard he hits him, placing 27th on approach and 20th off the tee in his last eight laps on the PGA TOUR.

Will Zalatoris (+5000 to win, $ 8,600 on DraftKings)

Zalatoris’ hitting ball was fantastic last week which led to a top 25 spot on a tough course in a WGC field. The putter let him down, losing nearly five strokes, but last week’s experience on tough Bermuda Greens should help him this week. A sixth place finish at the US Open last season and a top 15 at the Genesis Invitational prove that young Zalatoris can play with the best, especially on demanding tracks.

Lanto Griffin (+7000 to win, $ 7,700 on DraftKings)

Griffin placed 11th on approach last week, but struggled around the greens. Like Zalatoris, living tight lies in Bermuda should help Griffin at Bay Hill, where he finished 36th last season. His proximity of over 200 yards, which has the greatest distribution of approach fire here, is stellar, ranking 21st in its previous 24 laps.

Matthew NeSmith (+11000 to win, $ 6,900 on DraftKings)

Few have been better tee-to-green than Nesmith, placing eighth in his previous 24 laps. Specifically, no one has been better than him with his approach over the same time frame, and that’s what you need in Bay Hill. He’s also a good Bermuda putter, ranked 31st in the previous 12 rounds, but he could become more popular as the week goes on. Sebastian Munoz (+11,000, $ 6,700) did not achieve it at a high level like it was towards the end of last year. Still, Munoz won 4.9 strokes with his irons at the Concession Golf Club last week and will have another week in Bermuda, which is his favorite putting surface.

Define your DraftKings Fantastic golf rosters here: $ 800,000 PGA Flop Tour [$200K to 1st]

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