AUD / USD forecast from 25th to 29th March – Australian dollar remains unchanged after Fed shock

The week was relatively calm for the Australian dollar, which has not changed. There are only two Australian events on the program. The United States will release the final GDP for the fourth quarter. Here are the outlooks for this week's highlights and an updated technical badysis for AUD / USD.

The RBA has kept its interest rates, but the economy is under pressure and badysts are talking about lower rates if things do not improve quickly. The economy created 4.6 thousand jobs, well below expectations of 14,800. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, which is lower than the estimate of 5 , 0%.

A pessimistic message from the Fed's policy meeting took the markets by surprise and briefly pushed the greenback down. The Fed's rate forecasts indicated that a majority of policymakers were expecting rates to remain unchanged until 2020 and the rate survey indicates that economic activity has slowed down ". In addition, the Fed also announced that it will stop cutting its $ 4 trillion balance sheet by $ 50 billion a month. This move is a relaxation of the policy and aims to stimulate the economy. The Fed's economic forecast, which brought the estimate of its GDP to 2.1%, remained unchanged, against 2.3% in December.

AUD / USD daily chart with support and resistance lines. Click to enlarge:

1. CB Advanced Index: Wednesday 2.30 pm The Conference Board composite index is composed of seven distinct economic indicators. The index edged up 0.1% in January, suggesting stagnant economic growth.
2. Private sector credit: Friday, 00:30. Consumer credit levels plummeted to 0.2% in the last two months. This was below expectations of 0.3%. Lower credit levels indicate a reduction in spending, which is bad news for the Australian economy. Another small gain of 0.2% is expected in the next release.

* All times are GMT

AUD / USD Technical Analysis

The AUD / USD showed a limited movement, as 0.7085 (mentioned last week) remained relevant throughout the week.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with the number of rounds of 0.74, culminating point reached in the aftermath of December. This is followed by 0.7340, which the pair broke in late November.

0.7315 was a high swing achieved at the end of September. Lower, 0.7240 separate beaches in September and October. 0.7190 marked a low point during the first week of December.

Down 0.7165 was a low swing after a rally in mid-November. 0.7085 was a low point in September and remained relevant during the week.

Nearby, 0.6970 played a role in January 2017.

Below, 0.6825 supported the pair in late 2016 and early 2017.

0.6744 was a low point in January.

0.6686 was a significant limitation in January 2000. This was the last line of support at the moment.

I am bearish on AUD / USD

The global trade war has tarnished the Australian economy and the slowdown in China has weighed heavily on the Australian economy. If the trade war continues, traders can expect the Australian to continue struggling.

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